7 of our last 8 Official Plays have cashed.

Last Sunday’s 4 p.m. window was a 4–0 sweep on Official Plays, and 5–0 including the Denver Lean.

This week, Official Plays are 2–1.

And Monday’s Giants/Rams game came with the kind of injury variance you can’t handicap away: Jaxson Dart was hurt on the third play, which effectively killed his rushing prop and changed the entire Giants offensive setup before the game had a chance to develop.

We grade the result honestly. We also remember the context.

Official Plays: 2–1
Official Props: 0–2
Leans: 3–4

Indiana is clearly the better team, but 20.5 is a lot of points in a conference game against a Northwestern team that is 2–0 ATS and has been competitive defensively.

Indiana is 3–0 but only 1–2 ATS, and Northwestern has allowed just 12.5 points per game so far. Indiana’s defense has been elite too, which is exactly why this number feels a little rich to me. Bleacher Report

This is not a bet against Indiana winning.

It’s a bet that three touchdowns is too much.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Northwestern +20.5

Playable to: +19.5

This is the other angle I like in the game.

Indiana is allowing just 5.3 points per game, Northwestern 12.5, and both teams have shown the ability to make opponents work for every possession. Bleacher Report

If Northwestern hangs around, it’s likely because this becomes a slower, lower-possession game.

LEAN: Under 49.5

Clemson is laying around 1.5 to 2.5 on the road in Berkeley.

That means a short-week, cross-country trip for Clemson, with a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff, against a Cal team getting the home number in what the market is basically pricing as a coin flip. Covers.com

I’m not ready to make Cal Official, but I do like the setup.

LEAN: California +2.5 or better

I’m not forcing an Official MLB side tonight.

Milwaukee is the best team on the board at 100–59, but Robert Gasser vs. Michael McGreevy is not enough of a pitching edge for me to lay around -170. FanDuel

Cleveland is more interesting at around -140 behind Gavin Williams, but after getting shut out yesterday and with Noah Cameron on the other side, I’m not upgrading that into an Official either. FanDuel

So baseball stays pass unless we find a late prop or the market gives us a materially better number.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Northwestern +20.5
LEAN: Indiana/Northwestern Under 49.5
LEAN: California +2.5 or better
MLB: Pass for now

That’s enough.

No need to turn a good football setup into a six-bet card just because there are games on.

7 of our last 8 Official Plays have cashed.

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