Notre Dame needed some time to get rolling Sunday night, but once it did, the Fighting Irish pulled away for a 41–13 win and covered the number to send us into the new week with a winner.

Now the calendar turns.

There is plenty of baseball on the Labor Day slate, one standalone college football game tonight, and — finally — NFL football beginning this week.

Today’s approach is simple: keep the baseball card selective, attack the best college football opportunity tonight, and start taking advantage of NFL numbers before the rest of the market gets where we think it is going.

This is primarily a form-versus-form play.

Cleveland just swept four games from Detroit, including three walk-off wins. Baltimore comes into today having lost six straight, scoring only six runs during its four-game sweep at the hands of Boston.

That automatically gets our attention.

We have talked all season about riding teams when they are playing their best baseball and being willing to fade clubs that are spiraling. Baltimore’s six-game skid crosses our automatic deeper-review threshold.

The pitching matchup keeps this from becoming an Official Play. Cleveland sends Joey Cantillo against Trevor Rogers, and both bullpens have performed reasonably well recently. The Guardians’ bullpen has been particularly strong, posting a 3.07 ERA since early August.

At roughly even money or a small plus price:

🟡 Strong Lean — Cleveland Guardians ML

We are riding the hotter club, but not forcing it onto the official ledger.

This is more about the starting-pitching matchup than recent form.

Atlanta has been playing well and rallied past Philadelphia Sunday, but the Phillies have the superior starter today.

Jesús Luzardo enters 13–5 with a 3.02 ERA and 209 strikeouts, while Grant Holmes is 9–5 with a 3.62 ERA and significantly fewer strikeouts over 131⅔ innings.

Philadelphia is expensive — approximately -168 to -174 in the market — and that is the problem.

At -140 or -145, I would be far more interested.

At nearly -170?

We are not paying whatever price the sportsbook demands simply because we like the pitching matchup.

🟡 Lean — Phillies ML
Price prevents an upgrade.

There are arguments for Chicago.

The Cubs have the stronger offense statistically, while Milwaukee starter Robert Gasser carries a 4.57 ERA. Matthew Boyd counters for Chicago with a 4.05 ERA.

But Milwaukee is 88–56, owns one of baseball’s better pitching staffs, and is at home.

There simply isn't enough separation for us.

🔴 Pass

Troy Melton’s overall numbers — 7–4 with a 2.20 ERA — look terrific.

But his recent form has deteriorated, and Minnesota has already hit him hard twice this season. Across those outings, Melton allowed a 7.84 ERA and six home runs.

With Minnesota’s starter still uncertain this morning, there are too many moving pieces.

🔴 Pass

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

This is the best position on today’s board.

Florida State beat New Mexico State 34–17 in Week 0, but the final score masked some ugly football.

The Seminoles allowed nearly 300 passing yards, missed nine tackles, surrendered multiple explosive passes, and generated only 12 pressures. Quarterback Ashton Daniels was also pressured 10 times on 32 dropbacks.

Now the competition jumps considerably.

SMU arrives with veteran quarterback Kevin Jennings, an experienced offensive line, quality skill personnel and considerably more continuity than Florida State showed last week.

Jennings has accounted for 59 touchdowns over the previous two seasons, and SMU ranks among the nation's better teams in returning production.

The market is sitting around:

SMU -2.5 to -3
Total: 53.5

There is also a possibility of thunderstorms and wet conditions in Tallahassee, which makes us less interested in attacking the Over.

But the side remains attractive.

SMU has the better quarterback, the more trustworthy offense and an opportunity to exploit exactly the areas Florida State struggled with one week ago.

SMU -3

Play to: -3.5
At -4 or worse, the value begins disappearing.

This is something Tax Code members are going to see throughout football season.

When we identify a number early in the week that we believe could disappear, we are not going to wait until Sunday to tell you about it.

Our initial Week 1 evaluation had Tennessee in the -2.5 to -3 range.

The current market has actually moved in our favor, with Tennessee available around -1 to -2.5 depending on the sportsbook.

That creates an opportunity.

This is exactly why we track the market.

If Tennessee returns to -2.5 and eventually touches -3, anyone waiting until Sunday has voluntarily surrendered value that was available earlier in the week.

Preferred: Tennessee -1 / -1.5
Good: Tennessee -2
Still acceptable: -2.5
At -3: reassess before betting

We will track this number every day leading into kickoff.

The goal isn't simply picking the correct team.

The goal is beating the number.

Football season is underway, and understanding why numbers move is just as important as knowing which team you like.

The Square Tax College Football Betting Guide covers line movement, key numbers, bankroll discipline, market behavior and the process behind finding value.

$19.99 standalone.

Or it is included with Tax Code membership.

If you're betting college football every Saturday, understanding the market should be part of your preparation — not an afterthought.

🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY
SMU -3

🟡 STRONG LEAN
Cleveland Guardians ML

🟡 LEAN
Philadelphia Phillies ML

📈 NFL EARLY MARKET WATCH
Tennessee -2 or better

Small card. Selective card.

Exactly what Labor Day should be.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don't let it be you.