Football season is almost here, but tonight’s board belongs to baseball.

With a short turnaround before first pitch, the goal was not to manufacture action across the entire MLB slate. We narrowed the board to the games that warranted a second look and demanded a legitimate edge before putting anything on the official ledger.

The official card finished 9-10 last week.

That record is what goes in the ledger, and we are not dressing it up.

But the margin between 9-10 and a very strong week was incredibly thin.

Four of those losses came in games where our side produced almost no offense at all: two shutouts and two one-run performances.

Flip those four offensive no-shows, and the week could very easily have looked like 13-6 instead of 9-10.

That does not change the official record. A loss is a loss.

What it does show is how narrow the margin can be in baseball. You can handicap the pitching matchup, bullpen usage, lineup quality and price correctly and still get beaten because the offense simply does not show up that night.

The process remains the same: evaluate the matchup, demand a playable price, track the result honestly, and keep moving forward.

The first full college football board and NFL Week 1 board are now on the screen.

We have established early numbers for both, which means the real work begins this week: tracking movement, identifying where the market is confirming our first reads, and getting ahead of numbers that may disappear.

NFL Week 1 will receive a complete game-by-game breakdown of all 16 matchups before kickoff.

Play to: -155

Michael King gives San Diego the most meaningful starting-pitching advantage among the games we examined tonight.

King has been the considerably stronger pitcher than Cincinnati’s Brady Singer, and his ability to work deeper into games reduces the amount of exposure we need from the Padres bullpen.

San Diego’s recent form is the primary concern. The Padres have been struggling, which prevents this from becoming some oversized position simply because we prefer the pitching matchup.

But baseball prices matter. Around -140 to -150, we believe King provides enough separation from Singer to justify backing San Diego.

Official Play: Padres ML — play to -155.

Tampa Bay owns a substantial overall team-quality advantage against the Mets, and the starting-pitching matchup also favors the Rays.

The issue is price.

Around -175 to -180, we are being asked to pay for much of the advantage we identified. Tampa is clearly our preferred side, but the number keeps it below Official Play status.

Classification: Strong Lean — Tampa Bay ML

Atlanta enters in excellent form and continues to meet our hot-team criteria.

The Giants also present a favorable matchup for Atlanta tonight. The problem again is the market price. Laying approximately -190 with this particular pitching matchup leaves very little margin for error.

The Braves are absolutely the side we prefer.

They simply are not an Official Play at this price.

Classification: Strong Lean — Atlanta ML

Seattle enters tonight struggling badly offensively, while Boston has several positive lineup factors working in its favor.

Boston also gets Seattle away from home, where George Kirby has been considerably more vulnerable.

Kirby remains talented enough to dominate any lineup when he has everything working, and that upside keeps Boston out of the Official category.

Classification: Strong Lean — Boston ML

Jacob deGrom against Oakland immediately deserves attention.

But this is a good example of why recognizable names alone do not create bets.

Texas has not been playing particularly well, deGrom has not produced vintage deGrom results throughout the season, and the Rangers are being priced around -200 or higher.

Texas is the preferred side.

At that price, it is not worth forcing onto the ledger.

Classification: Lean — Texas ML

Houston initially caught our attention, but the deeper matchup did not support laying the price.

Chicago has been more competitive than the market perception might suggest, while Houston has enough pitching and workload concerns to eliminate the perceived advantage.

There is no reason to force Houston simply because the Astros are the more recognizable team.

Classification: Pass

This matchup produced too many conflicting signals.

Arizona owns an apparent season-long starting-pitching advantage, but Philadelphia’s starter has pitched considerably better recently. Philadelphia has also been playing excellent baseball, while its lineup presents a difficult matchup for Arizona.

Neither side provides enough separation from the number.

Classification: Pass

🟢 Official Play
San Diego Padres ML — play to -155

🟡 Strong Leans
Tampa Bay Rays ML
Atlanta Braves ML
Boston Red Sox ML

🟡 Lean
Texas Rangers ML

🔴 Pass
White Sox–Astros
Phillies–Diamondbacks

One official position is enough when one is all the board gives us.

The objective is not to bet more games.

The objective is to find prices worth betting.

College football is here, which means there is still time to get ready before the full season gets rolling.

The Square Tax College Football Betting Guide is $19.99 standalone and included at no additional cost with Tax Code membership.

It covers line value, bankroll management, key numbers, market movement, public bias, teasers, middles, situational angles and the process behind building a disciplined college football betting approach.

From the guide:

A good handicap can still become a bad bet when you pay the wrong price. Finding an edge and capturing the number are two separate skills. Over an entire season, consistently getting the better number matters.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax.

Don’t let it be you.