Official Plays: 12–7
Official Props: 1–2
Leans: 10–4

Yesterday’s afternoon slate went 4–0 on Official Plays and 5–0 including the Denver Lean, and the Sunday night Mahomes prop cashed easily.

Now we turn the page.

The market is sitting around Rams -6.5, with a total around 47.5. Los Angeles is trying to rebound from an ugly Week 1 loss, while New York comes in off an impressive opening win.

The biggest variable tonight is Puka Nacua, who is questionable after missing the final two practices of the week and has been trending toward sitting out. Jordan Whittington is also doubtful, which could leave the Rams unusually thin at receiver.

That makes laying nearly a touchdown with Los Angeles less attractive to us.

The Giants showed us something in Week 1.

They ran for 165 yards, controlled possession, and leaned into Jaxson Dart’s mobility and a physical rushing attack. The Rams allowed 174 rushing yards in their opener, so New York has a path to shortening this game and staying inside the number.

Los Angeles is still the more talented roster overall, and Sean McVay in a bounce-back spot deserves respect. But at +6.5, we’d rather take the points than lay them.

STRONG LEAN: Giants +6.5

If a +7 appears, that becomes considerably more attractive.

This game has the ingredients for a slower pace than the public may expect.

New York wants to run the football and bleed clock. Los Angeles used heavy personnel extensively in Week 1 and played at a very run-heavy rate. If Puka is out, the Rams have even more reason to lean on Kyren Williams, Blake Corum and the tight ends.

The number has already come down from the high 40s in some markets, so we don’t want to chase too far.

LEAN: Under 47.5

This is the market I like most tonight.

Dart ran eight times for 54 yards last week before accounting for kneel-down losses. Tonight, the game script is more likely to force him into obvious passing situations, which creates additional scramble opportunities against the Rams’ pass rush. Covers projects him for 37.6 rushing yards.

We don’t need anything heroic. A handful of scrambles plus one designed run can get this home.

OFFICIAL PROP: Jaxson Dart Over 30 Rushing Yards

Shop around before playing it.

Only three MLB games are on tonight’s slate: Blue Jays-Orioles, Nationals-Tigers, and Twins-Giants. With such a small board, I’m not forcing a baseball Official unless the pitching/price gives us a clear edge.

The WNBA board has more intrigue than MLB tonight.

Atlanta -1.5 is interesting against New York given Atlanta’s 8-2 run over its last 10 and the Liberty playing on a quick turnaround. Dallas -5.5 also deserves attention against Phoenix; Dallas has won six straight and is already 2-0 against the Mercury this season.

For now, though, we’re keeping the official card centered on football.

Official Prop: Jaxson Dart Over 30 Rushing Yards
Strong Lean: Giants +6.5
Lean: Under 47.5
Official Side: None

We’re not putting out a side simply because there’s one NFL game on television.

That discipline is part of the edge.