We come into Sunday with the official ledger sitting at:

College Football: 3–4
NFL: 2–0
Overall: 5–4

The college board has been volatile. The NFL board has been cleaner so far, with New England +3.5 and 49ers–Rams Under 48.5 both getting home.

Today we’re keeping the focus narrow: 1:00 p.m. games only.

A second Sunday edition covering the 4:25 p.m. slate will be out around 3:00–3:30 p.m., with the Sunday night game handled separately after that.

Houston getting points at home is one of the numbers we’ve liked since we first went through this board.

Buffalo is still Buffalo. Josh Allen can wreck any handicap.

But this isn’t a spot where we’re being asked to take Houston +6 or +7 and pray they hang around. We’re basically being told this game is close to a coin flip.

Houston has enough defensively to make Buffalo work for points, and if this turns into the physical, possession-by-possession game we expect, getting +1.5 at home is worth taking.

Houston +1.5

Shop for +3.5 if you can still find it

We liked Carolina at +2.5.

We liked Carolina more when +3 showed up.

And when +3.5 appeared earlier, that was even better.

This is exactly why we keep talking about numbers.

Carolina is at home, Chicago is laying a field goal, and we do not see enough separation between these teams to justify giving away the key number.

If you can still find +3.5, grab it.

If not, +3 remains playable.

Carolina +3

This is one of our favorite offensive mismatches of the early slate.

Cincinnati can attack you with:

Joe Burrow
Ja’Marr Chase
Tee Higgins
Chase Brown

That last name matters.

Brown gives Cincinnati another dimension out of the backfield, both as a runner and receiver, and makes it much harder for Tampa to simply sell out against Chase and Higgins.

Tampa still has weapons. Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan make this a legitimate receiving corps.

But Mike Evans is gone, and Cincinnati’s offense has more proven firepower from top to bottom.

If Tampa falls behind, we trust Burrow and the Bengals considerably more in a shootout.

Cincinnati -3.5

At -4, the play becomes less attractive. We want -3.5 if available.

We liked +3.5 even more, but that number has mostly disappeared.

We still like the Colts at +3.

Indianapolis is home, the Ravens are breaking in a new season, and this is exactly the kind of game where a field goal can decide the ticket.

The Colts have enough talent defensively to keep Baltimore from dictating the entire afternoon, and Jonathan Taylor gives Indy a way to shorten the game and keep Lamar Jackson off the field.

We would not chase this down to +2.5.

At +3, we’re still playing it.

Indianapolis +3

+9 is even better

This one has some ugly historical trends attached to it.

Cleveland covered poorly as a road underdog last season.

Jacksonville covered extremely well as a home favorite.

Deshaun Watson also has the opposite historical trend — undefeated against Jacksonville in his career — though most of that came years ago in a very different context.

We are not betting those trends.

We’re betting the number.

The total is only around 40.5, which tells us the market does not expect a lot of points.

If Cleveland can score somewhere in the 13–17 point range, Jacksonville has to put up a fairly substantial number to clear eight and a half or nine.

Cleveland’s offensive line injuries are the concern.

The defense is the reason we’re willing to take the points.

Cleveland +8.5

Best number: +9

We liked Pittsburgh much more when this number was -2.5/-3.

Now we’re laying 6.5.

That is an entirely different bet.

Atlanta going to Cooper Rush has driven the market hard toward Pittsburgh, and we understand why.

But the Steelers offense still has to prove it can consistently create separation.

We still lean Pittsburgh.

We are not chasing the move.

Pittsburgh -6.5

We considered the Over earlier in the week, but at this point we prefer the Detroit side.

New Orleans may be better than people think, which is why we’re not making this Official.

But Detroit at home should still control the line of scrimmage and create enough scoring opportunities to win comfortably.

At -7, we lean Lions.

At -7.5, we would pass.

Each week, we’re going to identify one or two player props we believe are strong enough to stand alongside our Official Plays.

These will be fully researched, graded on the official ledger, and held to the same standard as our sides and totals.

This is our favorite player prop of the early slate.

Tampa has historically been a defense opponents can attack underneath, and Chase Brown gives Joe Burrow a natural outlet if pressure comes.

The number is manageable.

Brown does not need a huge receiving game.

Four catches for six yards apiece gets us there.

And with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins demanding so much defensive attention outside, Brown should have room underneath.

Current Week 1 prop analysis also identifies this as one of the stronger receiving-yard angles on the board.

Chase Brown Over 23.5 receiving yards

We’re adding a little extra fun to the weekend card.

The Long Shot Lounge is a 2- or 3-leg parlay built from bets we think have a legitimate path to cash — sides, team totals, props, moneyline dogs, whatever makes sense that week.

This is for entertainment purposes only. These are not Official Plays and do not count toward The Square Tax record.

Think small stake, bigger upside.

Taylor remains the centerpiece of the Indianapolis offense, and multiple current Week 1 prop models have him among the better touchdown candidates against Baltimore.

This fits our Cleveland handicap.

If the Browns defense keeps the game ugly, Jacksonville getting to 25 is far from automatic.

The full-game total is only around 40.5, which supports that lower-scoring script.

This is the opposite philosophy.

We trust Cincinnati’s offense.

Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Chase Brown give Tampa problems everywhere, and if this game turns into the type of offensive script we expect, Cincinnati has a clear path to four touchdowns.

Again: Long Shot Lounge is for fun only. It does not count toward the official record.

Houston +1.5
Carolina +3
Cincinnati -3.5
Indianapolis +3
Cleveland +8.5

Chase Brown Over 23.5 receiving yards

Pittsburgh -6.5
Detroit -7

Jonathan Taylor anytime TD
Jacksonville Team Total Under 24.5
Cincinnati Team Total Over 27.5

This is Edition One.

The Square Tax will be back around 3:00–3:30 p.m. ET with a fresh look at the 4:25 p.m. board, using the latest lines, injuries and market movement.

The Sunday night game will get its own treatment after that.

No stale numbers.

No locking in the entire Sunday board at breakfast.

Our College Football Betting Guide remains available for $19.99 standalone and is included with Tax Code membership.

It covers line movement, key numbers, market discipline, bankroll management and the same process we use every week inside The Square Tax.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don’t let it be you.