The early Sunday card is still being graded, so we are not going to muddy the ledger with incomplete results.

Entering today, the official record stood at:

College Football: 3–4
NFL: 2–0
Overall: 5–4

Now we move to the 4:25 p.m. ET window.

The Sunday night game will get its own final edition later tonight.

This is one of the clearer sides for us in the late window.

Miami has enough problems that we do not want to automatically grab the points simply because +3/+3.5 looks attractive on paper.

We trust Las Vegas more in this matchup.

The Raiders are home, Miami has serious offensive questions, and the full-game total sitting around 40.5 tells us the market is not expecting Miami to suddenly turn into an explosive offense.

If we can get Raiders -3, we’re playing it.

We do not want to blindly chase -3.5 if -3 is still available somewhere.

Las Vegas Raiders -3

This goes hand-in-hand with our Raiders handicap.

If Miami struggles to move the football and Las Vegas plays this through the run game and short passing game, this has a very realistic path to something like:

Raiders 23, Dolphins 16
or
Raiders 24, Dolphins 13

That gets us comfortably underneath the number.

We like the Under.

We just like the Raiders side slightly more.

Under 40.5

We like Philadelphia.

We do not love laying six.

That distinction matters.

The Eagles were more attractive at -5/-5.5, and we’ve also seen meaningful Washington money showing up in sharper markets.

Instead of forcing the spread, we’re attacking the part of the matchup we trust most.

This may actually be the cleaner way to play the game.

Philadelphia’s defense is the unit we trust.

Washington has to reach 22 points to beat us at 21.5.

We don’t need Philadelphia to win by seven.

We don’t need the Eagles offense to score 30.

We simply need Washington to have trouble consistently finishing drives against a defense we expect to be one of the better units on the field today.

Scores such as:

27–17
24–17
23–20

all cash this bet.

If your book has 22.5, even better.

Washington Team Total Under 21.5

Best: Under 22.5
Playable: Under 21.5

We still lean Philadelphia.

But there is a meaningful difference between -5.5 and -6.

We also respect the Washington money we’ve seen enough that we’re not making Philly an Official Play at the worse number.

Philadelphia -5.5

At -6, we would rather play the Washington team total Under.

This number is simply large.

The Chargers are talented enough to win comfortably, but they have also been the kind of team that can make bettors miserable when asked to lay a big number.

Arizona doesn’t need to win.

They don’t even need to be particularly close for most of the afternoon.

At +9.5, a 27–20 or 30–21 type game still gets us there.

We’re not elevating this to Official, but Arizona is our preferred side.

Arizona +9.5

Minnesota around -1.5 is tempting.

But we have enough uncertainty at quarterback and enough volatility on both offenses that we don’t need to force it.

There are better bets on the late board.

Pass.

This is our favorite late-window player prop.

With Brock Bowers unavailable, Mayer becomes a much more important part of the Raiders passing game.

We don’t need 80 yards.

We don’t need a touchdown.

We need five catches.

Against a Miami defense that should give Las Vegas opportunities underneath, Mayer has a realistic path to that number purely through target volume.

Michael Mayer Over 4.5 receptions

This counts on the official ledger.

Las Vegas Raiders -3
Washington Team Total Under 21.5

Michael Mayer Over 4.5 receptions

Miami–Las Vegas Under 40.5
Philadelphia -5.5
Arizona +9.5

Green Bay–Minnesota

This is Edition Two.

We’ll be back later with a separate breakdown of the Dallas Cowboys–New York Giants Sunday night game.

Fresh number.

Fresh injuries.

Fresh read.

No need to decide the night game hours before kickoff.

The Square Tax College Football Betting Guide is still available for $19.99 standalone and is included with Tax Code membership.

Market movement. Key numbers. Bankroll discipline. Line shopping.

The same principles we’re using today.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don’t let it be you.