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The tightened Official Play process sits at 3–3. Saturday brings a full board of MLB, WNBA and seven NFL preseason games. We went through all of it. Two numbers survived the final screen.

Odds were supplied from the morning board, with late market movement checked where available. Preseason lines can move quickly. Shop the number before wagering.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

This is the cleanest MLB matchup on the early board.

Lorenzen enters Saturday with a 6.83 ERA, but the season number isn't the main reason we're fading him.

His recent form is worse.

Over his previous three starts, Lorenzen has carried a 13.50 ERA, allowing six or more earned runs twice and getting through four innings only once.

The requirement today:

Not five Giants runs.

Not a San Francisco win at -170.

Just three earned runs charged to Lorenzen.

That distinction matters.

The Giants team total Over 4.5 at +110 is certainly interesting, but our handicap is specifically built around Lorenzen's current inability to prevent runs. So we're isolating the vulnerable starter rather than requiring San Francisco to produce five against the entire Colorado staff.

There is risk.

San Francisco managed only two runs Friday night and remains an injury-depleted lineup. Colorado also enters having won three straight.

That keeps this at a standard unit.

But Lorenzen's combination of season-long weakness, extremely poor recent form, low three-run threshold and reasonable -130 price clears our current Official Play standard.

Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-130)

Playable to approximately -140.

Beyond that, reassess rather than blindly chase.

Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces

This is the full-game wager that separated itself from the WNBA board.

Minnesota enters 28–7, while Las Vegas is 24–11. These aren't mismatched teams — they're legitimate championship contenders.

That's part of why we like the number.

We're not being asked to lay six.

We're not laying eight.

We're essentially being asked to win the game.

The teams have split their first two meetings, but Minnesota won the most recent matchup 98–87 just one week ago. Napheesa Collier and Olivia Miles combined to lead a balanced Lynx attack in that victory.

The current broader market has Minnesota around -1.5, so the Lynx -1 number from our board is preferable if it remains available.

This is not a bet based solely on last week's result.

Minnesota has been the more consistent team across the entire season, has considerably more room for error than most short road favorites, and the price doesn't require us to pay a premium for that superiority.

Las Vegas absolutely has the talent to win this game.

That's the risk.

But at Minnesota -1, we're getting the better season-long team at almost a pick'em.

Minnesota Lynx -1

Playable through -1.5.

If the spread reaches -2.5 or -3, the handicap needs to be reevaluated.

Preseason taught us something Thursday.

The quarterback-depth advantage we liked with Houston was real on paper.

Then the backups played football.

That's the preseason.

So today we're putting even more emphasis on price, exact quarterback workload and how long the personnel advantage actually lasts.

This looks attractive at first because Buffalo plans to play Josh Allen and its healthy starters.

But Carolina is doing essentially the same thing.

Bryce Young and the Panthers' first unit are expected to get approximately 10–20 snaps, while Allen will receive limited early work for Buffalo.

So unlike Cincinnati on Thursday, there isn't a large starter-versus-backup mismatch here.

Carolina also already has a preseason game under its belt after playing the Hall of Fame Game, giving some of its depth players live-game experience that Buffalo's backups don't have yet.

Verdict: Buffalo -3 — Lean.

Useful information.

Not enough separation for an Official Play.

This is probably the best personnel setup of the 1 p.m. games.

Cleveland will start Deshaun Watson for the entire first half, then turn the game over to Shedeur Sanders for the second half.

Chicago is sitting Caleb Williams and several established starters, with Tyson Bagent starting.

That's a legitimate four-quarter quarterback advantage for Cleveland.

There's one problem:

Our morning board showed Browns -3.

Later markets have shown Cleveland -3. (-115)

Bagent is not some disaster of a preseason quarterback. He's had considerable success in exhibition football.

So:

Cleveland -3 (-115) if you can still find it.

At -3.5, I would not chase.

That's exactly the kind of number discipline we're trying to build into this operation.

This number tells the story.

Minnesota intends to play Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy, giving Kevin O'Connell two quarterbacks with substantial incentive to perform. Murray was recently named the starter, while McCarthy still needs preseason work.

The Giants are starting Jaxson Dart, but John Harbaugh has been much less forthcoming about exactly how his veterans will be used.

At the Minnesota -1 number from our early board, this was very interesting.

The market subsequently moved closer to Minnesota -2.5.

That means the market saw what we saw.

Minnesota -1 if still available.

At -2.5, much of the original value is already gone.

Patrick Mahomes will not play.

But that's not necessarily bad news for a preseason handicap.

Kansas City starts Justin Fields, followed by rookie Garrett Nussmeier and Chris Oladokun.

The Rams are sitting Matthew Stafford and most established starters, with Stetson Bennett/Ty Simpson handling the quarterback work.

That gives Kansas City a quarterback-depth advantage we respect.

The difference between this and Houston Thursday is that we're treating that advantage more cautiously after seeing exactly how volatile backup-heavy football can become.

Kansas City -2

At -3 or worse, we're out.

Both teams already got substantial first-unit work during their joint practice.

Jacksonville is sitting Trevor Lawrence and most veterans.

New Orleans is also sitting its top offensive unit, with Spencer Rattler starting in place of Tyler Shough.

So what are we really betting here?

Backups versus backups.

Roster-bubble players versus roster-bubble players.

There isn't enough personnel asymmetry to justify laying points simply because New Orleans is home.

New Orleans -2

No Jalen Hurts.

No Lamar Jackson.

Philadelphia will work through Andy Dalton, Tanner McKee and Cole Payton, while Baltimore gives Tyler Huntley the primary opportunity. Both teams are sitting a substantial number of established players.

Philadelphia is also dealing with several injuries in the secondary and receiver room entering the game.

Could Philadelphia win by four?

Absolutely.

But we can't identify a meaningful enough four-quarter advantage to justify laying a field goal.

Philadelphia -3

Seattle is sitting most established starters, including Sam Darnold for meaningful action, and plans to give Drew Lock and Jalen Milroe extensive work.

Dallas is expected to rest Dak Prescott and most of its major starters, leaving Sam Howell and Joe Milton to handle the quarterback workload.

I prefer Seattle's quarterback room here.

Lock is an experienced NFL backup, while Milroe gives Seattle a completely different athletic element later in the game.

But:

We're still being asked to lay a field goal in what could become a chaotic second-half depth contest.

Seattle -3

Not Official.

The low total of 7 tells you what the market thinks of the pitching environment.

Detroit -136 is reasonable, but there isn't enough separation to force the side, and asking Detroit for five runs at +120 runs counter to the low-total handicap.

Pass.

Chicago shut St. Louis out 3–0 Friday, but the Cubs' offense still hasn't been firing consistently despite the win.

Matthew Boyd gets Michael McGreevy, but Cubs -171 is expensive and Chicago's team total requires six runs.

We prefer Chicago.

We don't prefer the price.

Lean only.

The Yankees were tempting at TT Over 4.5 +105.

The final form screen killed it.

New York has scored only two total runs across three recent losses in which its starting pitching performed extremely well, including Friday's 3–1 loss in Toronto.

Five runs at plus money looks attractive.

The recent offense does not.

Pass.

We're attacking Lorenzen directly rather than laying San Francisco -170 or requiring five Giants runs.

The Mets offense has shown considerable life recently, and New York has been among MLB's strongest offenses since early August.

But Brad Lord enters with a respectable 3.79 ERA, so this isn't a clean starter fade.

Five Mets runs at even money is interesting.

Not enough for the ledger.

Connecticut is just 8–24 and has lost six of seven. New York has won eight of its last ten.

But Sabrina Ionescu is questionable with foot soreness, while Satou Sabally and Leonie Fiebich remain unavailable.

At -5 or -6, we'd be more interested.

At -8, we're paying for the obvious difference between these teams.

Lean.

Los Angeles has lost three straight.

Cameron Brink and Monique Akoa Makani are both out, while Washington currently has no major injuries listed.

Washington has dropped two straight itself, but both came against Las Vegas after the Mystics had previously won seven consecutive games.

This is a clear bounce-back opportunity at home against a depleted opponent.

Washington -6

Two championship-caliber teams.

At nearly a pick'em, we prefer Minnesota.

This is important after Thursday.

There are several NFL games where we like one side:

Cleveland.
Kansas City.
Minnesota.
Seattle.

But the difference between liking a preseason situation and making it an Official Play is enormous.

Starter advantages may last 10 snaps.

Backup advantages can disappear with one turnover.

Third-string players can decide the fourth quarter.

So we're still going to handicap every preseason game.

We're simply demanding a stronger price before putting one on the official ledger.

That's not being afraid of football.

That's respecting what preseason football actually is.

We started 3–0.

We've lost the last four.

The record is the record.

We're not hiding it, and we're not changing unit size because of it.

Six wagers is still a very small sample, but we're tracking the results closely — and we'll make adjustments if a meaningful sample shows the process isn't producing enough winners.

Suppose you handicap a team and decide it should be a three-point favorite.

At -1, you probably have a wager.

At -3, you may still have a wager.

At -4.5, you may have nothing.

Nothing about the players changed.

Nothing about the matchup changed.

The sportsbook changed the price.

That's why serious football handicapping doesn't end when you decide which team is better.

It ends when you decide what that opinion is worth in points.

The upcoming Square Tax College Football Betting Guide goes much deeper into fair lines, key numbers, market movement, middles, bankroll discipline and how to recognize when a good handicap has become a bad wager.

We've lost three Official Plays in a row.

The response is not doubling the bet.

The response is not chasing.

And the response isn't pretending the losses didn't happen.

Same unit.

Same screening process.

Then let a meaningful sample tell us what needs to change.

Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-130)
Minnesota Lynx -1

Cleveland Browns -3 — only if the 3 is still available
Kansas City Chiefs -2
Washington Mystics -6

Buffalo -3
Minnesota Vikings -1 if still available
Seattle -3
Cubs ML
Mets TT Over 4.5

Jacksonville–New Orleans
Philadelphia–Baltimore
Yankees TT Over 4.5
Remaining early MLB/WNBA board

Two plays made the ledger.

Seven NFL games got examined.

And we didn't put a football wager out simply because football is being played.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don't let it be you.