Five and two on the week. Saturday is about protecting the edge, not chasing the board.

We enter Saturday at:

Official Plays: 5–2
Official Props: 0–1
Leans: 1–0

Friday gave us a split on the Official card, but Houston +7.5 cashed as a Lean. The Long Shot Lounge, meanwhile, got introduced to reality when Portland State lost 84–0. Beer money only means beer money only.

Today, we’re staying selective.

This is the noon play.

Georgia is 2–0 ATS, Arkansas is 0–2 ATS, and Arkansas just got physically handled by Utah. Georgia, meanwhile, has been operating with elite efficiency through two weeks. Gunner Stockton threw five touchdowns last week and has completed better than 80% in consecutive games.

The concern is obvious: Georgia gets a big lead and Kirby Smart starts bleeding the clock.

But at -24.5, we still have enough room before crossing the 27-point threshold.

Georgia -24.5

Play to -25.5.
At -27 or worse, reassess.

This is the game I like most in the afternoon window.

SMU is dangerous, but this is essentially a pick’em with Louisville getting the home field. The market is tight because both teams are good, but Louisville has enough defensive structure and offensive balance for me to trust them at home laying less than a field goal. Multiple current previews have the game sitting right around Louisville -1.5.

Louisville -1.5

Play to -2.5.

If it gets to -3, we stop and reassess.

Kentucky is the kind of team I’m willing to fade, and Texas A&M has looked dominant through two weeks.

The Aggies are currently laying roughly 17 to 17.5, depending on the book.

I like A&M. I do not love paying 17.5 in an SEC game enough to put it on the Official ledger.

Strong Lean — Texas A&M -17 or better

This is one of those mid-major spots where the home favorite makes sense, but I don’t see enough edge to upgrade it.

The market is sitting around Toledo -5.5, and that’s a fair number.

Lean — Toledo -5.5

I still like USC more than Rutgers.

But the market is now around USC -21.5, and that’s where I stop wanting to chase. USC is 1–2 ATS this season, while Rutgers has enough offense to make a late backdoor cover possible if USC takes its foot off the gas.

USC -20.5 or -21 — playable
USC -21.5 — Pass

No thanks.

Alabama is laying too much for a team I don’t fully trust, and Florida State is too poor for me to want the points.

We know Western Kentucky is bad.

Georgia just hung 70 on them.

But laying 44.5 means we’re depending on Indiana continuing to score long after the game has been decided.

That’s not a bet we need.

OFFICIAL — Georgia -24.5
OFFICIAL — Louisville -1.5

STRONG LEAN — Texas A&M -17 or better
LEAN — Toledo -5.5

USC — only at -21 or better
PASS — Alabama/Florida State
PASS — Indiana/WKU

Official Plays: 5–2
Official Props: 0–1
Leans: 1–0

Friday’s first attempt got nuked by an 84–0 final.

That’s why this section stays completely separate from the Official ledger.

We’ll rebuild Saturday’s three-dog ticket later.

Beer money only. Entertainment purposes only.

The College Football Betting Guide remains $19.99 standalone and included with Tax Code membership.

Stop betting the logo. Start betting the number.

No locks. No gimmicks. Just better-informed betting.

The Square Tax
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