College Football — Early & Afternoon Edition

The Square Tax enters Saturday riding an 8–1 run across our last nine Official Plays.

Last Sunday's afternoon card went a perfect 4–0 on Official Plays and 5–0 including the Denver Lean.

We followed that with winners on Milwaukee, Atlanta Falcons +5.5 and Northwestern +20.5.

The objective remains the same: identify favorable numbers, understand the matchup, and avoid betting simply because a game is on television.

Official Plays: 3–1

Official Props: 0–2

Leans: 3–6

Monday's Jaxson Dart rushing prop is graded as a loss after his opening-series injury. If your sportsbook voided that wager under its injury rules, your personal ticket may differ.

Kickoff: Noon ET

Texas is an excellent football team, but traveling into Knoxville and covering nearly a touchdown is a different assignment from simply winning the game.

Tennessee has the offensive personnel to keep this competitive, and the home environment should present a meaningful challenge for Texas.

We're not asking Tennessee to win outright. We're asking the Volunteers to keep this within one possession.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Tennessee +5.5

Playable to +4.5.

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

This is a matchup where we're particularly interested in the second-half game script.

Oklahoma's defense is capable of keeping the Sooners competitive early. The greater concern is whether their offense can consistently move the football against Georgia.

We expect Oklahoma to struggle sustaining drives, potentially giving Georgia advantageous field position as the game progresses.

Georgia's coaching staff has an established history of making effective halftime adjustments, and we believe that could become particularly important in this matchup.

The Sooners may keep it competitive through two quarters. We're looking for Georgia to create separation after halftime.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Georgia -13.5

Pass at -14.5 or worse.

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

This is a number-driven handicap.

The relatively low projected total suggests a defensive contest with fewer scoring opportunities. In that environment, catching more than a field goal becomes attractive.

Iowa's defense gives the Hawkeyes a path to controlling the tempo and making Michigan earn its points.

Michigan certainly has the ability to win at home, but we're expecting a competitive, physical game rather than a comfortable Wolverines victory.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Iowa +5.5

Playable to +4.5.

Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. ET

UCLA travels across the country for an early Eastern-time kickoff. Maryland gets the home environment while catching points.

The travel situation interests us, but UCLA's quality keeps this below Official status.

LEAN: Maryland +1.5

Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. ET

Notre Dame is the superior team, but we're interested in whether Purdue can generate enough offense to stay inside this substantial number.

The Boilermakers don't need to threaten an upset. Finding 14–17 points could give them a realistic opportunity to cover.

LEAN: Purdue +27.5

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

We're interested in Florida at home laying a short number.

The Gators have a meaningful home-field advantage, but Ole Miss has enough offensive talent to make this uncomfortable.

The number and final personnel availability matter here.

LEAN: Florida at the short favorite number shown on our board.

Kickoff: 4:15 p.m. ET

We're getting more than a touchdown with a Vanderbilt team capable of competing offensively.

Auburn has not shown enough consistent offensive production to make us comfortable laying nearly double digits.

Vanderbilt's first significant road test is a concern, which keeps this at Lean status.

LEAN: Vanderbilt +9.5

Kickoff: 5:00 p.m. ET

We like Penn State's home-field advantage and Matt Campbell's preparation heading into this matchup.

Wisconsin will need to demonstrate substantially better execution than we've seen in its more difficult matchups.

Penn State has an opportunity to establish control through its defense and create favorable field position.

LEAN: Penn State -9.5

Kickoff: 5:00 p.m. ET

Michigan State's recent performances have raised legitimate concerns about its ability to execute consistently.

Nebraska has an opportunity to exploit those problems, particularly if the Cornhuskers can establish themselves offensively early.

We like Nebraska laying less than a touchdown, although we're keeping it below Official status until we see more.

LEAN: Nebraska -5.5

OFFICIAL PLAYS

LEANS

Official Props: None released.

Any additional evening positions will be published separately.

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