THE DAILY TAX REPORT — Sunday Night Edition

Subtitle: We swept the afternoon board 4–0 on Official Plays and went 5–0 including the Denver Lean. Now we finish Sunday night without forcing a side.

That’s how you respond to a rough early window.

Raiders +6.5 ✅
Raiders 26, Chargers 14

49ers -13.5 ✅
49ers 35, Dolphins 13

Seahawks -3.5 ✅
Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7

Cowboys -4.5 ✅
Cowboys 37, Commanders 20

And our Lean:

Broncos -2.5 ✅
Broncos 20, Jaguars 13

4–0 Official Plays.
5–0 including the Denver Lean.

No excuses after the early losses. We went back to work, attacked the afternoon board, and swept it.

Official Plays: 12–7
Official Props: 0–2
Leans: 8–4

Now we turn to Sunday Night Football.

The Long Shot Lounge came one leg away from cashing.

Saints MONEYLINE ✅
New Orleans went into Baltimore and won 24-17 outright.

Browns +8.5 ✅
Cleveland didn’t just cover — they won 23-19 outright.

The only miss was Miami +13.5, with San Francisco rolling 35-13.

So two of our three long-shot legs weren’t just covers — they were outright underdog winners.

That’s exactly what the Long Shot Lounge is supposed to be: small stake, big swing, real upside.

We considered both sides hard, but neither one earned Official status.

Kansas City looked like the old Chiefs last week in a convincing win over Denver. The question is whether that was the beginning of Kansas City returning to form or simply one excellent performance.

Indianapolis looked poor last week, but we still believe this roster is better than that showing.

At roughly Colts +6.5, we would rather take the points than lay them.

Indianapolis does not need to win this game.

We simply need the Colts to be competitive, and six and a half points provides enough room in a matchup where we believe Indianapolis is capable of scoring into the 20s.

We're not making it Official because there are still legitimate questions about what we saw last week.

STRONG LEAN: Colts +6.5

The path is straightforward.

Can Indianapolis reach roughly 20–21 points? We think they can.

Can Kansas City reach 24–27? Absolutely.

That puts scores such as 27–21, 27–20 or 24–23 directly in play.

We don't love it enough to upgrade it, but we lean toward points tonight.

LEAN: Over 45.5

This is the position we’re willing to officially play tonight.

We’re not manufacturing conviction on the spread just because it’s Sunday Night Football. Instead, we'll isolate the market we like best.

A competitive game script should keep Mahomes throwing throughout the night, and 224.5 is a number we're comfortable attacking.

OFFICIAL PROP: Patrick Mahomes Over 224.5 Passing Yards

Shop around for the best number available.

Official Prop: Mahomes Over 224.5 Passing Yards
Strong Lean: Colts +6.5
Lean: Over 45.5
Official Side: None

We already swept the afternoon board.

There is absolutely no reason to force another wager just because the lights are on.

No locks. No gimmicks. Bet the number.