THE DAILY TAX REPORT
Sunday Night Football — One Last Shot to Finish Week 1 Strong
Before we get to Cowboys–Giants, we grade the board.
📊 SUNDAY LEDGER
Official Plays: 3–6
Wins
Cincinnati -3.5 ✅
Las Vegas -3 ✅
Michael Mayer Over 4.5 receptions ✅ — Mayer finished with 6 catches.
Losses
Houston +1.5 ❌ Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things at the end to beat us.
Carolina +3 ❌. Certainly scored enough points to cover, defense didn’t show up.
Indianapolis +3 ❌
Cleveland +8.5 ❌ Just read this one wrong.
Chase Brown Over 23.5 receiving yards ❌ — Brown finished with 22 receiving yards, missing by 1.5.
Washington Team Total Under 21.5 ❌ — Washington finished with 22, another brutal half-point loss.
Not the Sunday we wanted.
But this is exactly why we publish the record instead of hiding from it.
The NFL ledger came into today 2–0. After the afternoon board, we’re 5–6 in NFL Official Plays entering Sunday Night Football.
Now we get one more game.
DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK GIANTS
Dallas -3
Total: 47.5–48.5
Najee Harris is out tonight.
Malik Nabers is active, giving New York its biggest explosive receiving threat, but the Giants are still asking a lot from a young offense against a Dallas defense with considerably more established talent.
Dallas has the more trustworthy quarterback and the deeper group of offensive weapons.
Dak Prescott has CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams.
New York can absolutely create pressure, particularly against a Dallas offensive line that isn't completely healthy, but over four quarters we trust the Cowboys to create more scoring opportunities.
🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY: DALLAS -3
We preferred Dallas at -2.5 earlier in the week.
That number is gone.
We're still willing to lay the field goal.
We are not interested in chasing Dallas to -3.5.
A three-point Dallas victory gives us a push rather than a loss, and that protection matters.
OFFICIAL PLAY
Dallas Cowboys -3
THE TOTAL
🟡 STRONG LEAN: OVER 47.5
We still prefer the Over at the lower number.
Nabers being active gives New York a legitimate downfield threat, while Dallas has enough offensive weapons to reach the upper 20s if the offense is functioning normally.
Our general scoring range remains somewhere around:
Dallas 27, New York 23
At 47.5, we like it.
At 48.5, the edge becomes noticeably thinner.
STRONG LEAN
Over 47.5
🎯 OFFICIAL PROP PLAY
🟢 JAVONTE WILLIAMS OVER 73.5 RUSHING YARDS
This is our favorite prop tonight.
Dallas has every reason to use the running game to keep New York's pass rush from simply teeing off on Dak Prescott.
Williams should have the volume, and the Giants' run defense presents a matchup Dallas can attack.
We don't need an explosive 150-yard night.
We need sustained carries and something in the mid-70s.
OFFICIAL PROP
Javonte Williams Over 73.5 rushing yards
SUNDAY NIGHT TAX CARD
🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY
Dallas -3
🟢 OFFICIAL PROP
Javonte Williams Over 73.5 rushing yards
🟡 STRONG LEAN
Cowboys–Giants Over 47.5
No Long Shot Lounge tonight.
We only use that section when we actually have a parlay worth featuring.
Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don’t let it be you.