Subtitle: NFL Sunday is here. Four early Official Plays, one Official Prop, and the Long Shot Lounge takes a swing at an outright upset.

The early window is where we’re concentrating first today. We spent the morning working through the entire 1:00 board, checking the numbers, quarterback situations, injuries and where the market is making us pay a premium.

No reason to force every game. We found four positions we’re willing to put on the official card, and there are a few others we like without needing to promote them.

Official Plays: 7–4
Official Props: 0–1
Leans: 4–4

Current line: Eagles -7
Shop for: -6.5 if available

This is one of our strongest positions of the early window.

Tennessee's offense has given us very little reason to believe it can consistently move the football, and now it draws a Philadelphia defense capable of completely controlling this matchup. We don't need Philadelphia to score 35. If the Eagles get into the mid-to-high 20s, Tennessee may have a very difficult time keeping pace.

The key is the number. -7 is playable, but -6.5 is considerably better. If your book is hanging -6.5, take it rather than waiting.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Eagles -7
Preferred number: Eagles -6.5

Current line: Steelers +5.5
Shop for: +6 if it appears

We're taking the points.

New England is being asked to win this game by nearly a touchdown after an ugly performance last week, and Pittsburgh has the defensive personnel to make this another uncomfortable afternoon.

This is exactly the type of NFL game where points become valuable. We don't necessarily need Pittsburgh to win outright. We need them to keep this inside the number.

If +6 shows up, even better. But we're comfortable taking the +5.5 currently available.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Steelers +5.5

Current line: Bears -4.5
Playable through: Bears -6

We locked this one in earlier this morning and nothing about the current number changes the handicap.

Chicago's offense exploded last week, and the encouraging part wasn't simply the 59 points. Caleb Williams handled the routine portions of the position far more efficiently while still flashing the improvisational ability that makes his ceiling so high.

Now Chicago gets Minnesota outdoors at Soldier Field with Carson Wentz at quarterback.

Minnesota's defense is good enough that we aren't getting reckless with the spread, especially in a division game. But below six, we believe Chicago owns enough advantages to warrant the play.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Bears -4.5
Play to: -6

Current line: Bengals +2.5
Shop hard for: Bengals +3

This is the one where shopping matters.

Nico Collins being unavailable changes Houston's offensive ceiling considerably, and C.J. Stroud now faces a Cincinnati offense with substantially more firepower on the other side.

Houston's defense deserves respect, but its secondary had problems last week, and the degree of difficulty doesn't decrease when Ja'Marr Chase walks onto the field.

We like Cincinnati at the current number, but +3 is significantly more valuable than +2.5. Check every book you have before placing this one. If you can find the full field goal, take it.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Bengals +2.5
Preferred number: Bengals +3

We're staying with the Chicago offensive thesis.

Williams looked dramatically more comfortable operating the offense last week, Chicago has multiple ways to stress Minnesota, and Ben Johnson isn't going to shut this offense down if opportunities are available.

We need two touchdown passes.

OFFICIAL PROP: Caleb Williams Over 1.5 Passing TDs

Shop around for the best price before playing it.

Jets +3.5 vs. Green Bay — The hook matters. New York is at home getting more than a field goal against a Green Bay team that has had problems closing games. We like the dog, but not enough to force it onto an already healthy official card.

Panthers -2.5 at Atlanta — Cooper Rush starting for Atlanta gives Carolina an obvious quarterback edge, and the Panthers just hung 37. But Carolina also surrendered 59, and Atlanta still has legitimate offensive weapons. Interesting below three; not an Official.

Saints +8.5 at Baltimore — The number is enormous enough to get our attention. Baltimore looked dangerous last week and may indeed be back to looking like Baltimore, which keeps this off the official card. New Orleans catching more than a touchdown remains attractive.

Browns at Buccaneers — PASS — We don't trust Cleveland's offense enough to want the Browns, but Tampa is laying too many points for us to comfortably take the other side.

We're mixing one outright upset with two big underdogs getting points:

New Orleans Saints MONEYLINE
Cleveland Browns +8.5
Miami Dolphins +13.5

The Saints are the swing-for-the-fences leg. We're not asking Cleveland or Miami to win their games — just stay inside large numbers.

Long Shot Lounge: Saints ML / Browns +8.5 / Dolphins +13.5

As always, this is the fun ticket. Keep the stake small. The Long Shot Lounge isn't the place to risk serious bankroll.

We're not done after 1:00.

Seattle-Arizona, Miami-San Francisco and the rest of the afternoon slate will get another look, and we'll come back to Indianapolis-Kansas City tonight rather than forcing an opinion hours before kickoff.

The goal is the same every Sunday: bet numbers, not logos. Take the value when it's there and don't manufacture action when it isn't.

The Square Tax College Football Betting Guide is available for $19.99 standalone and included with Tax Code membership. The guide is built around the same principles we use every day: finding value, understanding the market, managing a bankroll and avoiding the mistakes recreational bettors make every Saturday.

No locks. No gimmicks. Just better betting decisions.