Subtitle: Four late-window positions make the card as we attack the 4:00 slate.

Official Plays: 7–4
Official Props: 0–1
Leans: 4–4

Record entering today. Today’s early games are still in progress and have not been graded.

Current line: Raiders +6.5

We’re taking the points in a division game.

The Chargers are dealing with some meaningful personnel issues. Trey Pipkins III and Elijah Molden are out, and Ladd McConkey entered the weekend questionable. Las Vegas has its own concern with Brock Bowers doubtful, so this isn’t a one-sided injury situation. But 6.5 points is enough cushion for us in an AFC West game we expect to be competitive.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Raiders +6.5

If a +7 appears, grab it.

Current line: 49ers -13.5

Yes, it’s a huge NFL number.

We’re laying it anyway.

San Francisco opened the season by beating the Rams 27–7 and now gets its home opener against a Miami team we currently rate near the bottom of the league. San Francisco does have some injuries, but nothing changes the fundamental matchup enough for us to get off this position.

We’re betting on San Francisco getting into the high 20s or 30s and forcing Miami to keep pace.

OFFICIAL PLAY: 49ers -13.5

I would not chase beyond -14.

Current market: Seattle -3.5 to -4.5
Preferred number: -3.5

Sam Darnold is out and Drew Lock starts, but we are not treating Lock as some catastrophic downgrade.

Lock stepped into last week’s game unexpectedly and completed 16 of 22 for 187 yards and a touchdown, posting a 113.3 passer rating while helping Seattle erase a 10-point deficit. This week he has had the preparation and reps of the starter. Seattle’s teammates and coaching staff have been openly confident in him.

The price matters.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Seahawks -3.5

If your book has -4, that’s still playable. At -4.5, I like it less, so shop around.

Current line: Cowboys -4.5

This is the final addition.

Washington generated nearly half of its Week 1 yardage on its final two possessions and struggled to create consistent offense for most of the afternoon. Washington is also without Frankie Luvu and Chig Okonkwo.

Dallas wasn’t good in its opener either, but this is the Cowboys’ home opener, and this matchup sets up better for their offense. Washington allowed explosive plays against Philadelphia, and now it has to deal with Lamb and Pickens.

The concern is legitimate: Dallas gave up 165 rushing yards last week, and Washington will undoubtedly attack that weakness. That keeps us from laying a bigger number.

But at the current price:

OFFICIAL PLAY: Cowboys -4.5

I’d play -4.5. At -5, still acceptable. I would not chase it much further.

I understand the Denver case, and I do lean that direction.

Denver is at home and laying less than a field goal after a poor Week 1 showing. Jacksonville is a legitimate team, though, and Trevor Lawrence doesn’t need to be an elite quarterback for the Jaguars to make this competitive.

We’ve already put four late games onto the official card. There is no reason to manufacture a fifth.

LEAN: Broncos -2.5

Our three-leg ticket remains:

New Orleans Saints — MONEYLINE
Cleveland Browns +8.5
Miami Dolphins +13.5

We intentionally built this one with one outright upset swing and two large underdogs taking the points.

Miami +13.5 is the late leg.

As always: small stake. Big payout attempt.

We’ll come back later for Indianapolis at Kansas City rather than making a decision several hours before kickoff.

There’s no need to force the night game now.

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No locks. No gimmicks. Just value, bankroll discipline, market awareness and smarter betting practices.