NFL — Early & Afternoon Edition

Saturday's college football card finished 3–1 on Official Plays, with Tennessee, Georgia and Iowa delivering winners.

Today's edition includes both the 1 p.m. and afternoon NFL windows, allowing Tax Code members to access the complete card before the early kickoffs.

Official Plays: 6–2

Official Props: 0–2

Leans: 7–10

Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET

Carolina's offensive performance last week deserves respect, but asking the Panthers to cover on the road is a different proposition.

Cleveland's defense has an opportunity to disrupt Bryce Young's rhythm and force Carolina into uncomfortable situations. The Browns need to protect the football and avoid allowing the Panthers advantageous field position.

We're expecting a competitive, one-possession game in Cleveland.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Cleveland +2.5

Playable at +2.5. Pass at +1.5.

Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET

New England's defensive performance against Pittsburgh was impressive, but Jacksonville gets the home-field advantage and an opportunity to respond following its loss to Denver.

The Jaguars must establish offensive balance and limit Drake Maye's ability to extend drives.

The number is important. We're comfortable laying less than a field goal with Jacksonville, but we're not interested in paying the additional half-point.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Jacksonville -2.5

Playable to -2.5. Pass at -3.

Kickoff: 4:25 PM ET — Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

This is one of our strongest matchup-based positions.

Dallas has struggled defending the run, and Baltimore presents an especially difficult challenge with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Jackson's mobility forces defenders to account for the quarterback on every snap, while Henry can wear down a defensive front through repeated physical carries.

We expect Baltimore to establish its rushing attack, control possessions and create favorable opportunities through the passing game.

Dallas has enough offensive talent to respond, and Baltimore's offensive-line availability presents some risk. Nevertheless, the Cowboys' run-defense matchup is the central reason we're backing the Ravens.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Baltimore -3.5

Playable to -3.5.

Kickoff: 4:25 PM ET

We're taking the points with Las Vegas.

The Raiders have shown an ability to compete through their opening two games, and getting a field goal plus the hook provides valuable protection in what could be a tightly contested matchup.

New Orleans has offensive-line concerns, potentially creating opportunities for the Raiders to generate pressure and force difficult passing situations.

Brock Bowers' availability matters to Las Vegas' offensive ceiling, but the Raiders have demonstrated an ability to remain competitive as a team.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Las Vegas +3.5

Playable at +3.5. Reevaluate at +3.

Kickoff: 4:25 PM ET

This selection follows our Baltimore handicap.

Dallas has struggled containing opposing rushing attacks, and Henry presents a particularly challenging combination of physicality, vision and ability to break tackles.

We expect Baltimore to establish its running game early, creating opportunities for Henry to accumulate carries throughout the afternoon.

The primary risks are an unexpected negative game script, reduced rushing opportunities or offensive-line disruption.

OFFICIAL PROP: Derrick Henry 90+ Rushing Yards

Maximum price: -115. If unavailable at that threshold and price, pass.

Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET

Detroit's offensive line and rushing attack present a difficult assignment, but the Jets have the defensive ability to keep this matchup competitive.

We're looking for New York to generate pressure on Jared Goff and prevent Detroit from establishing complete control of the game.

The Lions deserve to be favored. We simply believe the Jets have an opportunity to stay within the number.

LEAN: Jets +6.5

Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET

Sam Darnold's return strengthens Seattle's offensive outlook, while Washington is preparing to start Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels unavailable.

Seattle has meaningful advantages in offensive continuity and overall roster strength.

Our hesitation is the price. Laying 8.5 on the road leaves less room for error than the earlier number.

LEAN: Seattle -8.5

Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET

We're interested in Pittsburgh catching a field goal and the hook at home in a divisional matchup.

Cincinnati's offensive talent is undeniable, particularly with Joe Burrow directing the offense. However, Pittsburgh has an opportunity to make this a physical contest and disrupt the Bengals' offensive rhythm.

The Steelers' injury situation remains a concern, keeping this below Official status.

LEAN: Pittsburgh +3.5

Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee's offensive struggles create an opportunity for New York to secure a home victory.

With Jaxson Dart unavailable, Jameis Winston brings experience and a willingness to attack downfield. That aggressiveness can generate explosive plays, although it also introduces turnover risk.

We like the matchup against Tennessee more than we trust the Giants' offensive consistency.

LEAN: New York Giants -2.5

Buffalo's offense presents significant challenges through Josh Allen's ability to create plays with both his arm and legs.

The Chargers have enough offensive talent to remain competitive, particularly if Justin Herbert can avoid turnovers and establish an effective passing rhythm.

At Buffalo -7, we don't see a sufficiently attractive position on either side.

Classification: PASS

Houston is laying approximately 2.5 points on the road.

The Texans need better offensive execution and improved protection for C.J. Stroud. Indianapolis gets the home-field advantage and an opportunity to exploit Houston's recent offensive inconsistencies.

Neither side presents enough value at the available number.

Classification: PASS

Kansas City is available at -9.5 at multiple sportsbooks, while another is offering -10.5.

The Chiefs possess significant advantages in offensive talent and overall execution, but the market already reflects much of that difference.

We prefer -9.5 to -10.5, but we're not forcing a substantial road-favorite selection.

Classification: PASS

Kickoff: 4:05 PM ET

San Francisco's defense presents a challenging matchup for Arizona, especially if the Cardinals struggle to establish their running game.

The 49ers have the personnel to control the tempo, but laying approximately 7.5 points requires a convincing margin.

We don't see sufficient value at the current number.

Classification: PASS

Kickoff: 4:05 PM ET

Minnesota enters as a narrow road favorite.

Both teams have offensive personnel questions, making this a difficult matchup to handicap confidently at the current price.

Rather than manufacture a selection, we're staying away.

Classification: PASS

Derrick Henry 90+ rushing yards — -115 or better.

Chargers–Bills Texans–Colts Chiefs–Dolphins Cardinals–49ers Vikings–Buccaneers

No Long Shot Lounge selection today.

Sunday Night Football will receive a separate report.

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