The updated process enters tonight 3–0, but nothing changes. No chasing a streak. No adding plays just to fill space. We scanned the full MLB and WNBA boards, and one number earned Official Play status.

Odds checked Tuesday afternoon. Lines can move. Always shop for the best available price before wagering.

Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants

This is exactly the type of wager the tightened Square Tax process is designed to find.

We could lay -176 with Houston.

We could ask the Astros to score at least five runs and play their team total Over 4.5 at -118.

Instead, we're attacking the weakest part of the matchup directly.

Carson Whisenhunt Over 2.5 Earned Runs at -110.

Houston only needs to get three earned runs charged to Whisenhunt before he leaves the game.

That's the number we prefer.

The Houston offense gets the matchup we want, while this prop allows us to avoid paying the premium attached to the Astros moneyline.

And unlike the full-game team total, we don't care what happens against the San Francisco bullpen once Whisenhunt's night is finished.

This is where price shopping and bet selection come into play.

Houston ML: -176
Houston TT Over 4.5: -118
Whisenhunt Over 2.5 ER: -110

All three wagers are built around essentially the same handicap:

Houston should have offensive success tonight.

But they're not equally priced, and they don't require the same result.

We only need three earned runs against the starter.

That's our preferred way into the matchup.

Carson Whisenhunt Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-110)

Playable to approximately -125.

If the price moves beyond that range, don't chase it.

The Cubs offense gets a matchup worth examining against Irvin, but at -120 we don't have enough separation from the Whisenhunt play to put both on the ledger.

Good matchup.

Reasonable number.

Not quite enough.

Lean.

This was one of the more interesting prices on the board.

Getting plus money on Milwaukee to score three earned runs against Buehler deserves attention, particularly when Milwaukee's moneyline itself is sitting around -122.

The price is attractive enough to make the shortlist.

The matchup isn't clean enough to make it Official.

Lean.

Washington's recent form earned this one a serious look.

But Las Vegas has too much high-end talent returning to simply treat the Mystics' recent run as automatic value.

At +6.5, Washington remains interesting.

Not enough for the ledger.

Lean.

There were plenty of tempting numbers tonight.

That's different from having betting value.

Tampa Bay -174: Too expensive.

Dodgers -271: Absolutely not.

Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 ER -140: Matchup may warrant a fade, but we're paying too much for it.

Mason Barnett Over 2.5 ER -150: Same problem.

Whisenhunt Over 3.5 Ks -155: Why pay that price when we can attack his earned runs at -110?

Phoenix/Los Angeles: Injury uncertainty takes away the clean angle.

There will always be another game.

There will always be another number.

There is no reason to pay a bad price because we feel like we need more action.

The updated screening process has produced three Official Plays.

All three have won.

That's encouraging.

It's also a tiny sample.

We're not declaring victory over the sportsbooks after three bets, and we're not changing anything because of three wins.

We're going to run the process throughout the week and evaluate it properly.

The goal isn't to build the longest winning streak possible.

The goal is to consistently identify wagers where matchup, market and price line up at the same time.

If that means one play, we make one play.

If it means no plays, we pass.

Football is almost here.

And we're putting together something considerably deeper than a list of picks.

The upcoming Square Tax College Football Betting Guide is being built to help bettors understand the parts of football betting that matter long after one Saturday's games are finished.

The point spread isn't a prediction. It's a price.

A team can be better than its opponent and still be a terrible bet.

That's one of the biggest mistakes recreational bettors make during football season. They handicap the team instead of handicapping the number.

If you believe a favorite should be -7 and the market is offering -3.5, you may have value.

If you believe that same team should be -7 and you're being asked to lay -10.5, being right about which team is better doesn't make the wager good.

The team matters. The matchup matters. But the number determines whether you should bet it.

That's the difference between picking winners and betting intelligently.

The full guide will go much deeper into:

Bankroll discipline
Opening lines and line movement
Key football numbers
Buying points
Middles
Public bias
Underdogs and market perception
Teasers, parlays and reverse parlays
Steam and sharp action
Finding value before the market takes it away

More details are coming soon.

A 3–0 run doesn't mean increase the unit size.

A 10–0 run wouldn't mean increase it either.

The purpose of disciplined bankroll management is to remove emotion from that decision.

Wins don't make the next wager more likely to win.

Losses don't make the next wager due.

Keep the unit consistent.

Bet only money you can afford to lose.

And don't confuse a hot streak with permission to get reckless.

Carson Whisenhunt Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-110)

Jake Irvin Over 2.5 ER (-120)
Walker Buehler Over 2.5 ER (+125)
Washington Mystics +6.5

Pass

One wager earned its way onto the ledger.

That's enough.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don't let it be you.