Subtitle: A late, selective card tonight: one WNBA Official, one MLB Official Prop, and two baseball leans. No forcing volume just because the board is there.

Official Plays: 12–7
Official Props: 1–3
Leans: 11–5

A note on the prop record: last night’s Jaxson Dart rushing prop was essentially wiped out on the opening series when Dart was injured. We’re still grading it as a loss for the official Square Tax ledger because transparency matters.

However, if your sportsbook voided the wager or graded it “no bet” because of the early injury, then it did not count as a loss on your personal ticket.

The same injury also materially changed our Giants handicap almost immediately, but that’s part of betting. We track the result and separately evaluate whether the process was sound.

Tonight, we move on.

We’re taking the points with Minnesota.

The Lynx have been the stronger team over the full season, and +3.5 gives us valuable protection in what we expect to be a competitive game.

Indiana certainly has enough offensive firepower to win at home, so this isn’t a fade of the Fever. This is about the number. We don’t need Minnesota to win outright — although they absolutely can.

At more than a field goal, we believe there is enough value to make it official.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Minnesota Lynx +3.5

If you can find +4, even better.

We’re attacking the strikeout market tonight.

Bradley has the swing-and-miss arsenal to take advantage of a San Francisco lineup that has been striking out at an elevated rate against right-handed pitching.

This is the kind of matchup where Bradley doesn’t necessarily need seven dominant innings. If his stuff is working, he can accumulate strikeouts quickly enough to clear this number.

At 6.5, we’re willing to make it Official.

OFFICIAL PROP: Taj Bradley Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Shop for the best price available.

Bradley’s matchup is also one of the reasons we lean toward Minnesota on the side.

The Twins are getting a plus price in a matchup where we believe the starting-pitching edge gives them a legitimate path to winning outright.

We like it.

We just don’t like it enough to add another Official.

LEAN: Twins Moneyline

San Diego is another dog we’re willing to consider tonight.

The Padres offense has been swinging the bat well, while the Dodgers’ starting-pitching matchup gives San Diego a realistic opportunity to get to the bullpen with a competitive game.

The price is important here.

LEAN: Padres Moneyline

If your book is offering San Diego at plus money or close to even, that’s where we’re interested.

Official Play: Minnesota Lynx +3.5
Official Prop: Taj Bradley Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Lean: Minnesota Twins ML
Lean: San Diego Padres ML

That’s it.

No -200 baseball favorites. No laying 17 points in the WNBA simply because the favorite is clearly better.

Small board. Selective card.

Football season is fully underway, and the Square Tax College Football Betting Guide remains available for $19.99 standalone and is included with Tax Code membership.

It covers the exact principles we use in these reports: line value, market movement, bankroll discipline, situational handicapping, and avoiding the mistakes that recreational bettors make every Saturday.

No locks. No gimmicks. Just smarter betting.