The Square Tax went 4-1 over the last three days before last night’s 4-3 Padres loss stopped the mini streak.

The read was still competitive — San Diego was tied 2-2 late before Cincinnati scored twice in the eighth — but the ledger only cares about the final score. We took the loss and move on.

Today starts a new streak.

Current range: roughly -140 to -150
Play to: -150

We’re going right back to San Diego.

Casey Mize brings a 3.45 ERA into this matchup, while Cincinnati counters with Brandon Williamson at 6.11. That is the cleanest starting-pitcher edge on the early board.

The Padres lost a tight one last night, but that does not erase the underlying matchup today. The price is still playable, and this is the kind of spot where we trust the process rather than getting scared off by one late loss.

Official Play: Padres ML — play to -150.

Atlanta is still the better overall club, and the market is leaning hard toward the Braves.

Grant Holmes and Brad Lord have nearly identical ERAs — 3.71 and 3.75 — so this is not a huge starting-pitcher mismatch. But Atlanta is taking the overwhelming majority of the moneyline handle, and the overall roster gap still favors the Braves.

Classification: Strong Lean — Braves ML

Texas gets Jacob Lopez and counters with Cody Bradford.

Bradford has the better ERA, 3.42 to 4.82, but the market is showing some resistance to laying the big Texas number. Oakland is attracting a lot of run-line money, which is enough to keep this below Strong Lean status.

Classification: Lean — Rangers ML

Philadelphia is nearly a pick’em despite Andrew Painter carrying a 5.95 ERA against Taylor Clarke at 2.60.

That starting-pitcher mismatch is too significant for us to blindly back Philadelphia just because the Phillies are the better overall team.

Classification: Pass

The total is extremely high, which tells us the market already understands the run-scoring environment.

Nothing here gives us enough edge to force a side or total.

Classification: Pass

There are enough conflicting factors in this matchup that we are not going to manufacture action.

Classification: Pass

🟢 Official Play
San Diego Padres ML — play to -150

🟡 Strong Lean
Atlanta Braves ML

🟡 Lean
Texas Rangers ML

🔴 Pass
Phillies–Diamondbacks
Orioles–Rockies
Mariners–Red Sox

We’ll come back this afternoon for the late edition and attack the evening slate with fresh numbers.

College football gets rolling in earnest tomorrow.

And one week from today, the NFL regular season begins.

The football board is now officially becoming the priority, and we’ll be tracking movement, key numbers, market disagreement, and early value throughout the week.

NFL Week 1 will get a complete 16-game breakdown before kickoff.

The Square Tax College Football Betting Guide is $19.99 standalone and included with Tax Code membership.

It covers line value, bankroll management, market movement, key numbers, situational angles and the process behind finding edges before the market removes them.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax.

Don’t let it be you.