The Opening Bell
Yesterday wasn’t our night. The official card finished 0–2, but the two losses arrived in completely different ways.
The Phillies had every opportunity to steal one late. Down 2–1 in the ninth, they had runners on second and third with one out—and then the game ended on one of the most boneheaded baserunning mistakes you will ever see from a major-league player.
During a rundown involving Justin Crawford, J.T. Realmuto inexplicably retreated from third base toward second. The confusion produced a bizarre game-ending double play and wiped out Philadelphia’s chance to tie or win the game. Realmuto owned the mistake afterward, but that doesn’t make the loss any easier to swallow.
Atlanta was far less complicated. The Braves simply didn’t show up and were beaten 8–3. Sometimes a side is wrong, the team gets outplayed, and you take the loss without making excuses. That’s baseball.
We did place a maximum price of Braves -145 on the recommendation. The line eventually reached approximately -149, so anyone who waited and followed our price restriction stayed off the wager. That’s a close call and a reminder that the number matters—but those who played it at an acceptable price still took the loss with us.
No hiding losses. No chasing them. We turn the page.
Today’s Official Play
Minnesota Lynx -9.5 or Better — 1 Unit
Game time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Minnesota enters today at 21–6, while Seattle sits at 6–22. The Lynx have succeeded all year without Napheesa Collier, and she is now listed as probable to make her season debut. Adding an elite two-way player to the league’s top team gives Minnesota another advantage against the WNBA’s last-place club.
However, this is where discipline becomes important. Minnesota narrowly escaped Seattle 105–102 in Monday’s meeting, and Collier could be eased back into action after her extended absence. We are therefore setting a firm betting range:
Play Minnesota at -9.5 or better.
Pass at -10 or higher.
Do not pay an inflated number simply because you like the team.
Square Tip of the Day
A good team does not automatically make a good bet.
The betting line determines the value. Once the market moves beyond our acceptable number, the correct decision is often to pass—even when we still believe that team will win the game.
Looking Ahead
We’ll review the evening MLB slate later today. An Evening Edition will be released only if legitimate value develops.
We are not adding plays simply to make the card look bigger.
Official Record: 0–2
No locks. No chasing. Straight bets and disciplined units only.
Until tomorrow—keep collecting.
One early WNBA play, an unbelievable Phillies finish, and why we refuse to chase a moving number.