The Square Tax Daily Report
Sunday, July 26, 2026
Current lines as of approximately 9:45 a.m. ET. Odds can move—shop for the best number and confirm the line before placing any wager.
The Opening Bell
Yesterday’s teams do not automatically earn a place on today’s card.
The Dodgers, Mariners, Phillies total and Milwaukee were all reviewed—but none made today’s official card. Our job isn’t to become attached to teams. It’s to find the best numbers available on today’s board.
🟢 Official Play #1 — 1 Unit
Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-104)
Playable up to: -115
Atlanta enters at 61-43, while Baltimore is 51-54, yet the Braves are available around even money. Atlanta also sends Reynaldo López to the mound against Shane Baz. López carries a 3.95 ERA, compared with Baz at 4.13.
This isn’t about blindly taking the team with the better record. It’s about getting the stronger overall club at a price that requires it to win only slightly more than half the time.
At -104, Atlanta earns an official spot.
🟢 Official Play #2 — 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-122)
Playable up to: -135
Pittsburgh has the starting-pitching advantage with Braxton Ashcraft facing Jameson Taillon. Ashcraft enters 9-4 with a 3.95 ERA, while Taillon is 2-5 with a 5.38 ERA.
The Pirates are also at home, and the current number is still reasonable. We’re not being asked to lay -180 or -200 for the pitching edge.
At -122, there is enough separation between the starters without paying an excessive premium.
🟡 Lean
Miami Marlins Moneyline (-126)
Miami and San Diego both enter at 52-53, but the Marlins are priced as a modest home favorite. The starting matchup is Walker Buehler against Janson Junk, with both carrying ERAs above 5.00, so the bullpen and lineup variance keep this from becoming an official recommendation.
Lean only. Do not count it toward the official record.
🚫 Square Tax Pass
Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-300 or higher)
Milwaukee has a major advantage over Colorado and sends Jacob Misiorowski against Kyle Freeland. The market knows it—the Brewers are priced above -300.
When a favorite becomes this expensive, we immediately examine the -1.5 run line rather than laying three units to win one. But checking the run line does not mean we’re required to play it.
The run line must offer a genuinely favorable price and matchup. Otherwise, both options are passes.
Great team. Terrible moneyline price. No official wager.
Square Tip of the Day
Yesterday’s winners don’t receive automatic invitations.
A team can remain good while its betting value disappears overnight.
Every day starts with a blank card. We examine the pitching matchup, the number and the risk before deciding whether any team deserves our money.
We’re not betting uniforms.
We’re betting prices.
📊 Official Record
4-3
The unit total will be added once every previous wager and price has been verified. We will not publish a guessed number.
Until Tomorrow… Keep Collecting.