Football leads tonight. Three Official Plays made the cut across NFL preseason and WNBA.

The Early Edition play on Seattle +131 lost, with Milwaukee winning 7–4, so the tightened process moves from 9–8 to 9–9 entering tonight.

This is the strongest football position on tonight's board.

Current line: Raiders -1.5
Total: 38.5
Moneyline: Raiders -130 / Texans +110

Las Vegas has more incentive and, more importantly, more useful quarterback depth for a preseason game.

Klint Kubiak has continued rotating all three Raiders quarterbacks with the first team. Kirk Cousins should see limited work, while Fernando Mendoza and Aidan O'Connell are positioned to receive meaningful snaps. Mendoza went 10-of-16 for 97 yards and a touchdown in his preseason debut.

Houston is taking a different approach. The latest update says most Texans starters will sit and virtually none of the defensive starters will play. C.J. Stroud is expected to see only a few series. Graham Mertz is out for the season, forcing Houston to add Brett Rypien behind Davis Mills.

That matters enormously in preseason handicapping. This isn't about which roster is better in January. It's about which team has the better combination of playing-time intent and quarterback depth tonight.

Las Vegas also has a first-year head coach installing a new system and more jobs being actively contested throughout the roster.

Official Play: Raiders -1.5

Playable to: -2.5

Houston still has legitimate defensive depth, and Stroud could give the Texans an early advantage if he gets multiple drives. But over four quarters, I prefer Las Vegas' quarterback rotation and the Raiders' incentive structure.

Current line: 49ers -1.5
Total: 38.5
Moneyline: 49ers -118 / Chargers -102

This is a more complicated preseason handicap.

Kyle Shanahan has indicated that Brock Purdy and a number of San Francisco starters are expected to play after sitting out the opener.

The Chargers are also using starters. Justin Herbert is expected to start, but the plan is for one series before Los Angeles turns the game over to its backups.

San Francisco's uncertainty comes later in the game. Kurtis Rourke has dealt with a chest issue, which could mean significant Adrian Martinez snaps.

That prevents me from elevating the 49ers simply because Purdy is playing.

San Francisco may own the first-quarter advantage. The question is whether that advantage survives three quarters of backup football.

Lean: 49ers -1.5

Classification: LEAN — not an Official Play.

Current line: Yankees -104 / Orioles -103
Total: 7.5, Under -120

The market is essentially asking us to choose the winner at pick'em.

New York enters tonight at 71–55 while Baltimore is 61–66, and the Yankees are going for a sweep.

The low total tells us the market expects pitching to matter considerably, which makes laying almost nothing with the stronger overall team appealing.

The hesitation is that Baltimore is not being priced like a team the market expects to roll over, and with a full evening board available I don't think we need to upgrade a near-coin-flip baseball game.

Strong Lean: Yankees ML -104

Yankees O3.5 -125: Too much juice for four runs in a game carrying a 7.5 total.

Orioles O3.5 -110: Pass.

Texas -181 / Washington +168
Total: 7.5, Under -115

Texas is clearly the preferred side, but -181 is too expensive for a Rangers club sitting around .500. Washington enters at 61–67 and Texas at 62–65.

The Texas team total Over 4.5 +115 is interesting in isolation, but a full-game total of only 7.5 tells us the market isn't projecting a huge offensive night.

Pass.

Houston -181 / Angels +168
Total: 8.5, Under -120

Houston is the better side, but once again we're being asked to lay close to -180.

The Astros are only 64–63, while the Angels are 50–77.

Houston TT Over 4.5 at -115 is more attractive than the moneyline, but it does not separate enough to become an Official Play.

Pass.

Current line: Fever -2.5
Total: 184.5
Moneyline: Indiana -162 / Dallas +136

This one clears the bar.

Indiana enters 24–12, while Dallas is 20–16. More importantly, Dallas has lost significant perimeter personnel. Azzi Fudd is out for the season with a knee injury, and Aziaha James is also unavailable.

Dallas has gone just 1–4 in its last five games without Fudd, and the Wings have already lost the most recent meeting with Indiana 98–87.

Indiana's offensive strength attacks exactly where Dallas is thinner tonight.

At only -2.5, we're not being asked to lay a massive road number.

Official Play: Fever -2.5

Playable to: -3.5

Paige Bueckers remains capable of carrying Dallas offensively, and a total of 184.5 tells us volatility is expected. But Indiana has more intact firepower and the healthier rotation.

Current line: Dream -8.5
Total: 180.5
Moneyline: Atlanta -425 / Los Angeles +320

This is a sizeable spread, but Atlanta still grades high enough.

The Dream are 22–13, while the Sparks are 12–23 and have lost five straight. Atlanta ranks fourth in the league in both point differential and net rating and owns one of the league's best rebounding profiles.

Los Angeles has allowed 92.7 points per game, while its offense has slipped to only 81.4 per game over its last seven. Atlanta has also gone 6–1 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Sparks.

The injury report is not entirely one-sided: Atlanta is without Brionna Jones, while Cameron Brink, Erica Wheeler and Monique Akoa Makani are listed probable for Los Angeles.

That's enough to keep us from getting overly aggressive, but I still have Atlanta clearly ahead of this number.

Official Play: Dream -8.5

Playable to: -9

Current line: Aces -14.5
Total: 167.5
Moneyline: Las Vegas -1350 / Connecticut +800

This matchup screams Las Vegas, but the spread has gotten enormous.

Connecticut is 9–25 and 3–13 on the road, while Las Vegas is 24–14. The Aces already beat Connecticut 98–69 and 101–94 earlier this season.

Connecticut also has Brittney Griner and Aaliyah Edwards listed questionable, while Dana Evans is out for Las Vegas.

But here's the issue: an earlier market was Aces -13.5, and we're now being asked to lay 14.5.

Las Vegas can absolutely win by 20. That doesn't automatically make -14.5 a good wager.

Lean: Aces -14.5

🟢 Raiders -1.5
🟢 Fever -2.5
🟢 Dream -8.5

🟡 Yankees ML -104

🟡 49ers -1.5
🟡 Aces -14.5

Everything else: Pass.

Tonight's Raiders-Texans handicap is exactly why preseason football requires a different process from the regular season.

The Texans may have the better established NFL roster.

That doesn't matter nearly as much when most of those starters aren't playing.

We care about:

Who plays.
How long they play.
Quarterback depth.
Roster competition.
Coaching intent.

Those variables can matter more than the regular-season power rating.

We will continue treating every preseason game that way as we move closer to Week 1.

The tightened-system record enters tonight at 9–9 after Seattle's Early Edition loss.

Three bets cleared tonight's Official Play standard.

Those are the three we count.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don't let it be you.