The afternoon card put us in position for a winning day, but we aren't changing our process. Tonight's card attacks two plus-money opportunities instead of laying heavy favorites.

We're passing on the expensive moneyline and attacking the matchup through Philadelphia's offense. Six runs is the target, and we'd rather take plus money than pay nearly -190.

1 Unit

Five strikeouts is a reasonable target at an excellent price. Plus money on a strikeout prop with this ceiling is worth taking.

1 Unit

Reds Team Total Over 4.5 (-150)

Good matchup.

Too much juice.

Heavy moneylines.

There are several teams we think probably win tonight, but probability alone doesn't create betting value.

Sometimes the best bet isn't the team you like—it's the market you choose.

Instead of laying -187 on Philadelphia, we attacked the team total at plus money.

Always ask whether there's a better way to bet the same opinion.

Every official play is 1 unit.

No chasing.

No doubling because you're ahead.

Protect the bankroll.

Early Edition: 1-0

Yesterday: 2-1

Week: 5-3

Overall: 15-14