Two Official Plays tonight. The market gave us a better Yankees price, and Cincinnati has the strongest starting-pitching mismatch on the evening board.

Odds reference: Scores & Odds afternoon board with a final market check before publication. Always shop for the best available number.

The afternoon card went 0–2.

🔴 Pirates Team Total Over 4.5 — LOSS
🔴 Padres ML -136 — LOSS

Pittsburgh won 4–3, leaving the team total one run short, while San Diego fell 4–2.

That takes the cleaned-up process to 7–8 entering tonight.

This is the best price improvement on tonight's board.

Our earlier snapshot had the Yankees around -116. The late market has dropped New York to approximately -105, giving us a better number on a side we already liked.

The pitching matchup supports it.

Will Warren: 8–6, 4.42 ERA
Chris Bassitt: 4–4, 5.11 ERA

Warren has also gone 2–0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against Baltimore this season. Bassitt is recently back from a lengthy IL stint after dealing with a back issue.

New York enters 70–55, while Baltimore is 61–65.

At essentially even money, we're backing the better team with the pitching matchup we prefer.

Official Play: Yankees ML -105

Playable to: -120

This is the clearest starting-pitching discrepancy on the evening slate.

Chase Burns: 14–2, 2.47 ERA, 151 strikeouts
Matthew Liberatore: 5–10, 5.07 ERA, 116 strikeouts.

Burns was dominant again in his most recent start, throwing seven scoreless innings while allowing four singles and striking out eight.

Earlier this month, Cincinnati was 16–5 in Burns' starts, illustrating how consistently his outings have put the Reds in position to win.

St. Louis is the better team by record, so this is not a blind fade of the Cardinals. The play is specifically about Burns versus Liberatore at a price that remains reasonable.

Official Play: Reds ML -128

Playable to: -140

This one came very close.

Miami gets Sandy Alcantara, who enters 13–7 with a 3.43 ERA, against Aaron Nola at 4–9 with a 5.33 ERA.

Alcantara has also pitched particularly well lately, carrying a 3.02 ERA over his last seven starts, and he threw seven scoreless innings against Philadelphia when he faced them July 28.

Getting +121 with that starting-pitching advantage is attractive.

The hesitation is Philadelphia's stronger overall club and home-field advantage. That keeps Miami just below Official status.

Strong Lean: Marlins ML +121

Last night's 22–0 Milwaukee win is impossible to ignore, but it also creates exactly the kind of spot where we have to separate yesterday's score from today's matchup. Milwaukee's blowout does not begin tonight's game with runs on the board.

Seattle sends Logan Gilbert, who owns a 3.28 ERA and has a 3.16 ERA over five starts since the All-Star break. Milwaukee counters with Dustin May, who has been excellent since joining the Brewers, posting a 2.08 ERA through his first two starts for them.

At +115, Seattle is interesting because Gilbert gives them a legitimate pitching path to an upset.

Milwaukee being 78–48 keeps it below Official status.

Lean: Mariners ML +115

The starting-pitching numbers heavily favor Tampa.

Drew Rasmussen: 12–5, 2.78 ERA
Max Scherzer: 1–5, 6.59 ERA.

Rasmussen has been outstanding lately, posting a 1.20 ERA over his last five starts, winning all five. Scherzer, however, has been substantially better since returning from the IL, with a 2.37 ERA over four starts.

That's why we're not simply laying roughly -193.

Lean: Tampa Bay. Pass at the current heavy moneyline price.

Cleveland has Parker Messick going at 9–7 with a 2.59 ERA and 142 strikeouts, while San Francisco is starting left-hander Matt Wilkinson in his major-league debut.

That's a substantial pitching advantage, but the Guardians are priced above -200.

Good matchup. Bad price.

Lean Cleveland. No Official Play at -200-plus.

Texas remains the favored side, but the matchup doesn't produce enough separation at approximately -125 to -130.

Pass.

Houston is favored around -148, but the pitching setup carries enough uncertainty that we're not paying the price.

Pass.

The Dodgers are clearly the better team and Kyle Freeland enters at 4–10 with a 6.27 ERA, but Los Angeles is roughly -190 and the Coors total sits at 11.5.

Roki Sasaki has been significantly better lately, posting a 2.50 ERA over his past six starts, while Freeland is coming off an eight-inning, one-run outing of his own.

The market has priced the obvious angles aggressively.

Pass.

Kansas City has moved from roughly -158 on our board to around -180 or higher in the broader market.

We liked Kansas City much more at the earlier price.

At the current number, the value has been squeezed out.

Pass. Do not chase.

🟢 Yankees ML -105
🟢 Reds ML -128

🟡 Strong Lean: Marlins ML +121
🟡 Lean: Mariners ML +115
🟡 Lean: Rays
🟡 Lean: Guardians

Everything else: Pass.

Tonight gives us two different examples of why the early board matters.

The Yankees improved from roughly -116 to -105.

That makes a bet we liked better.

Kansas City moved the opposite direction, climbing well beyond the -158 we originally recorded.

That makes an attractive matchup less attractive.

The team did not change.

The opponent did not change.

The price changed.

And the price is part of the handicap.

The afternoon losses moved the record to 7–8.

Tonight's wager size does not change because of that.

The Yankees and Reds passed the process at the available numbers. Those are the Official Plays.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don't let it be you.