THE SQUARE TAX
DAILY TAX REPORT | FREE EDITION
Thursday, October 1, 2026
NFL | College Football | MLB | WNBA | NHL
The Square Tax finally took a loss yesterday with Houston, but one result doesn’t change what has been an outstanding run.
Last 20 Official Plays: 17–3 before yesterday’s loss
Last 10 NFL Official Plays: 9–1
Tonight’s board gives us a little bit of everything, including Thursday Night Football and a pair of college football games. The full Tax Code card is already set with two Official Plays tonight, plus additional premium analysis.
TONIGHT’S FREE PLAY
Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This looks like an old-fashioned AFC North game where points could be difficult to come by.
Pittsburgh’s offense exploded for 30 against Cincinnati last week, but that performance stands out compared with what the Steelers have generally produced. Since the start of 2025, Pittsburgh has averaged only 20.9 points per game against teams other than Cincinnati. NFL
Cleveland, meanwhile, continues to play quality defense even without Myles Garrett. The Browns enter tonight with the second-highest quarterback pressure rate in the NFL at 42.2%, which could create problems for an aging Aaron Rodgers behind a Pittsburgh offense that has not consistently generated explosive production. NFL
Deshaun Watson has also been playing better football recently, and Cleveland has won two straight. I’m not asking the Browns to light up the scoreboard here. I’m asking them to keep an AFC North home game within a field goal.
A game in the neighborhood of 20–17 or 17–13 would not surprise me at all.
Tonight’s Free Play: Cleveland Browns +2.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State — 8:00 PM ET
This is one of the most interesting games on tonight’s board.
WKU’s early offensive numbers look ugly on the surface, but context matters. The Hilltoppers have already had to face Georgia and Indiana, so their raw scoring average does not tell the entire story.
New Mexico State enters Conference USA play at 1–3 after getting beaten 42–18 at home by New Mexico last week. The Aggies allowed New Mexico to score on three consecutive possessions in the third quarter, while their offense did show some life late. New Mexico State University Athletics
There is a premium position from this matchup on tonight’s Tax Code card.
Tax Code members get the exact play and playable number.
North Texas at Tulsa — 9:00 PM ET
Another game worth watching, particularly from a pace and total perspective.
There are arguments for both sides, which keeps us from forcing a side simply because there are only two college games tonight. The full matchup and our final classification are included in the Tax Code edition.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns — 8:15 PM ET
Pittsburgh enters after beating Cincinnati 30–27, while Cleveland has quietly put together consecutive victories.
The biggest matchup may be Cleveland’s defensive pressure against Pittsburgh’s passing game. Despite losing Garrett, the Browns have continued to generate pressure at an elite rate. NFL
There is also a Tax Code Official Play in tonight’s NFL game.
The free play is Cleveland +2.5.
The premium play is staying behind the paywall.
TONIGHT’S TAX CODE CARD
Tax Code members receive:
2 Official Plays
Additional premium leans and matchup analysis
Playable numbers and betting thresholds
Full NFL, college football, MLB, WNBA and NHL breakdowns
We don’t force action just because games are on the board.
We wait for numbers we believe are worth betting.
JOIN THE TAX CODE
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The College Football Betting Guide is also included with membership.
No locks. No gimmicks. Just disciplined betting analysis.