Official Record: 11–14

Last night was an ugly 0–4, and there is no dressing that up. Today’s board gets a harder filter. We are still using the same core process, but with the extra intel layers.

Detroit -1.5 | Total around 35.5–36.5

Washington may give some starters their first preseason work, but Jayden Daniels’ participation has remained uncertain and Marcus Mariota is unavailable. Detroit will sit Jared Goff and split meaningful quarterback work between Joshua Dobbs and Luke Altmyer. Dan Campbell specifically said Dobbs will start and the backup battle remains open.

The market has also pushed Detroit beyond the original -1.5 in some places, with current boards showing as high as -2.5.

There are arguments for Detroit because of quarterback continuity, but with kickoff right on top of us and Washington possibly using more starters, I do not want to force the opener.

Classification: PASS

Atlanta’s starters are sitting after getting extensive work in joint practices. Michael Penix Jr. is still in his return progression, and Atlanta plans to use Cooper Rush and Jack Strand in the game.

Indianapolis is starting Riley Leonard, with Daniel Jones still being held out of the first two preseason games.

This number has moved toward Indianapolis. Earlier markets were around Colts -2.5; current numbers have been showing -3.5.

Normally I hate giving away a full point of preseason value, but the personnel plan still favors Indianapolis enough for me.

Official Play: Colts -3.5
Do not play past: -4

This is the underdog I like most today.

Baltimore is expected to rest many established starters, but that did not hurt them in the opener. Their reserves produced 440 yards of offense, including 298 passing yards, and UDFA quarterback Joe Fagnano went 22-of-28 for 224 yards.

Minnesota plans to start J.J. McCarthy, with Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer behind him, but the Vikings’ offense generated only 238 yards and went 4-of-12 on third down in the opener.

The key is the number. We were looking at Minnesota around -3/-3.5. The market still gives us Baltimore +3.5 in places.

VSiN’s broader preseason work has also been emphasizing underdog value and depth rather than blindly backing starter name recognition.

Official Play: Ravens +3.5
Playable: +3 or better

Cleveland has the more interesting quarterback situation because the starter competition itself creates meaningful preseason reps. Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders have both been rotating in that competition throughout camp.

The Browns were around -1.5 earlier, while the market has shown -3 in some places today.

At -1.5 I’d be considerably more interested.

At -3 or -3.5, the edge is thinner.

Classification: LEAN CLEVELAND

The Saints have an actual quarterback competition between Zach Wilson and Spencer Rattler. Wilson was excellent in the opener, completing 11 of 16 for 145 yards and a touchdown.

That is exactly the type of preseason motivation I want — two quarterbacks trying to secure the backup job and meaningful snaps throughout the game.

The market opened roughly Saints -2 and has been around -2.5.

Very close to Official, but not quite.

Strong Lean: Saints -2.5

The Giants’ younger roster has several legitimate battles going on, particularly at running back, wide receiver and in the secondary. Their joint practice with Miami was also described as a strong day on both sides of the ball.

Jaxson Dart threw a touchdown in the Giants’ opener, and New York’s defense held Minnesota to only 201 yards.

The Giants are around -3.5 today.

I like New York, but laying more than a field goal in preseason keeps it below Official.

Classification: LEAN GIANTS -3.5

The Eagles and Patriots just completed two physical joint practices, which often reduces the urgency to give established starters extensive game work.

Philadelphia’s defense reportedly created multiple turnovers in the second joint practice, while both teams got quality first-team work already.

The line is short, but there is too much uncertainty about how much Saturday-game work each coaching staff wants after those practices.

Classification: PASS

This one became more interesting when Cincinnati announced its starters will not play again this preseason, including Joe Burrow.

Chicago got extensive competitive work against Cincinnati during the joint practice, and Caleb Williams was sharp in red-zone work. Whether Chicago uses many starters tonight remains less certain.

That keeps Bears -1.5 from reaching Official territory, but the Cincinnati starter decision definitely points me toward Chicago.

Classification: LEAN BEARS -1.5

Tampa Bay is laying roughly 5.5, which is simply too many preseason points for me unless we have an overwhelming quarterback/depth mismatch.

Kansas City has plenty of young roster competition, including at quarterback behind the starter and along the offensive line.

I won’t lay nearly a touchdown in this setup.

Classification: PASS

Arizona has one of the clearer quarterback usage plans tonight.

Gardner Minshew will start and is expected to play roughly the first half, while Kedon Slovis is positioned for second-half work. Many Arizona offensive starters will rest, but Minshew gives them veteran quarterback stability for a large chunk of the game.

Dallas has its own legitimate backup battle between Sam Howell and Joe Milton III, both of whom played reasonably well in the opener.

At Arizona -1.5, I prefer the Cardinals, but Dallas’ QB depth keeps this one just below Official.

Strong Lean: Cardinals -1.5

This is my baseball play today.

The Yankees came into Saturday having won five straight, including a 3–1 victory over Toronto Friday night. Their pitching staff held Toronto to one run, and the offense continues to get contributions throughout the lineup.

Your morning number essentially makes this a pick’em:

Toronto -105 / Yankees -102

At that price, I’ll back the hotter club at home rather than laying heavy juice.

Official Play: Yankees ML -102
Playable to: -115

Atlanta is trying to stop a slide after losing six of eight, while Milwaukee owns baseball’s best record. Milwaukee starts Logan Henderson (7–2, 2.70 ERA) against Martín Pérez, who has pitched well in August but owns poor career numbers against Milwaukee.

The issue is the price around Brewers -173.

Good side. Expensive number.

Strong Lean: Brewers ML

Miami is a sizable favorite on the morning sheet. I prefer the Marlins, but not enough to pay around -175 without a larger pitching edge.

Lean: Miami

Seattle is calling up Kade Anderson, one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, for his major-league debut. Anderson went 10–1 with a 1.06 ERA, 135 strikeouts and only 13 walks in Double-A.

The Cubs counter with David Peterson, who is listed at 7–7 with a 5.29 ERA.

I really like the matchup, but a major-league debut introduces enough uncertainty to keep Seattle just below Official at -142.

Strong Lean: Mariners -142

Boston is around -200, and Saturday’s pitching matchup is far less dominant than Friday’s Sonny Gray spot. Patrick Sandoval is listed at 1–2 with a 4.76 ERA.

No interest laying -200.

Pass.

Phillies over Cardinals — Lean Philadelphia, but -131 is not an automatic play.

Rays over Orioles — Lean Tampa Bay at around -124.

Texas over Angels — Lean Texas, but -165 is getting expensive.

Arizona over Cincinnati — Lean Arizona around -170.

Cleveland at Colorado — Pass because Coors plus an inflated favorite price creates too much variance.

Miami at San Diego — Pass at Padres -154.

Oakland at Houston — Pass at Astros -235.

Mets at White Sox — Pass around pick’em.

Pittsburgh at Dodgers — Pass at Dodgers -249.

Detroit at Kansas City — Pass at pick’em.

Indiana has won two of the previous three meetings this year, but New York may get important reinforcements. Jonquel Jones and Leonie Fiebich both practiced Friday and were pushing to return today.

That makes New York -2.5 interesting, but Jones’ final status is important enough that I’m not stamping it Official before confirmation.

Lean: Liberty -2.5

Los Angeles is the better roster and gets the home court, but after what happened with our WNBA favorites last night, I want stronger independent support than simply “better team laying a manageable spread.”

Lean: Sparks -4.5

Atlanta is coming off a franchise-record 124-point performance, and Angel Reese produced a 20-point, 10-rebound game while going 9-for-9 from the field. Atlanta has also already beaten Phoenix in each of their prior meetings this season.

The concern is the quick turnaround after a high-energy game, so I’m stopping just below Official.

Strong Lean: Dream -5.5

🟢 Colts -3.5
🟢 Ravens +3.5
🟢 Yankees ML -102

🟡 Saints -2.5
🟡 Cardinals -1.5
🟡 Brewers ML
🟡 Mariners -142
🟡 Dream -5.5

🟡 Browns
🟡 Giants -3.5
🟡 Bears -1.5
🟡 Miami ML
🟡 Rays ML
🟡 Phillies ML
🟡 Texas ML
🟡 Arizona ML
🟡 Liberty -2.5
🟡 Sparks -4.5

Everything else: Pass.

We enter today 11–14. Three plays cleared the stricter filter.