Two Official Plays. No need to manufacture a third.

Odds reference: Scores & Odds, captured at 1:52 p.m. ET. Lines can and will move. Always shop for the best available number before placing a wager.

The tightened process finished last week 5–4, and we're sticking with it.

That means a bet does not become an Official Play because we like a pitcher, recognize a trend, or think a line looks cheap. We want multiple independent factors pointing in the same direction, a price worth paying, and a clear understanding of what can go wrong.

Tonight, two plays cleared that bar.

St. Louis gets the nod in Game 2 of the doubleheader.

We prefer the Cardinals' starting-pitching setup with Andre Pallante against Rhett Lowder, and the price remains reasonable enough that we don't have to lay heavy juice to back the better side of the matchup.

This is also the type of spot where we would rather play the moneyline than get cute with a run line. We simply need St. Louis to win the game.

Official Play: Cardinals ML -117
Playable to: -125

Instead of paying the larger moneyline price on Chicago, we're attacking the matchup through the Cubs' offense.

The team total allows us to isolate the part of the handicap we like most: Chicago's opportunity to score against Luis Castillo and the Seattle pitching setup.

We need five runs. At the right price, we prefer that route to laying a significantly higher moneyline with the Cubs.

Official Play: Cubs Team Total Over 4.5
Playable: -110 or better

If the price has moved materially past that range, do not chase it.

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Atlanta came close to making the card.

We like the starting-pitching matchup and the price isn't prohibitive, but the overall case didn't separate enough from our two Official Plays to justify adding action simply for the sake of having another bet.

Strong Lean: Braves ML -124

We like the pitching side of the matchup with Nolan McLean against Walker Buehler, particularly at a relatively short price.

There are enough conflicting factors surrounding the teams themselves, however, to keep this below Official Play status.

Lean: Mets ML -119

Coors Field and the matchup make the Dodgers offense attractive, but 6.5 is already an enormous team total. Seven runs are required to cash.

There may be value here, but there isn't enough margin for error at this number to elevate it.

Lean: Dodgers TT Over 6.5 -115

The rest of tonight's board did not give us enough edge at the available numbers.

That includes Colorado Over 3.5 at heavy juice and several favorites where the matchup may be attractive but the price removes too much of the value.

A pass is part of the process.

Yesterday gave us one of the best examples we've had yet.

We initially liked:

Yankees Under 7

Then the market moved.

The available total became:

Yankees Under 6.5

We passed.

The game finished 4–3 — exactly seven runs.

At Under 7, the wager pushes.

At Under 6.5, the wager loses.

Nothing about our handicap suddenly changed. The price of the wager changed.

That half-run was the difference between getting our money back and losing the bet.

This is why we constantly talk about numbers, line movement and refusing to chase.

Being right about how a game will play out is not enough.

You still have to bet the right number.

🟢 Cardinals ML -117
🟢 Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 — play at -110 or better

🟡 Strong Lean: Braves ML -124
🟡 Lean: Mets ML -119
🟡 Lean: Dodgers TT Over 6.5 -115

Everything else: Pass.

Two Official Plays means two Official Plays.

There is no bonus for betting every game on the board, and there is no reason to increase a wager because yesterday lost or because today's card is short.

Protect the bankroll. Shop the number. Never chase.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don't let it be you.