Odds as of approximately 5:35 p.m. ET. Lines can move. Always shop for the best available price.

The afternoon started with a loss.

❌ A'ja Wilson Over 10.5 rebounds +105

Wilson finished with eight rebounds on an unusually quiet afternoon. The handicap missed. No excuses, and more importantly, no reason to chase it.

Our other Early Edition position — Arizona First Five — is still pending tonight.

Baltimore sends Bradish against Texas tonight, and we're willing to attack the matchup at plus money.

The attraction here isn't simply predicting that Texas wins. It's the threshold and the price.

We need three earned runs charged to Bradish, and we're getting +115 rather than laying significant juice on Texas F5 (-160) or the Rangers team total Over 3.5 (-145).

That's important.

If our handicap is that Texas can do damage against Baltimore's starter, we'd rather isolate that portion of the matchup while getting paid plus money.

Official Play: Kyle Bradish Over 2.5 ER +115

Risk: 1 unit

Eight strikeouts is certainly asking something, but we're being compensated with +120.

That's why this gets consideration.

The alternative is laying -135 on deGrom Over 1.5 earned runs allowed, which doesn't interest us nearly as much. If we're going to attack a deGrom market tonight, we'd rather consider his ability to dominate hitters than bet on Baltimore scoring against him.

Interesting.

Not quite official.

This is probably my favorite non-official number from the rest of the board.

Milwaukee itself is -140 and -135 F5. Instead, five runs gets us +110.

Taj Bradley Over 2.5 earned runs at -120 points toward essentially the same handicap. Rather than doubling exposure, we'd choose one route.

For now, we're keeping it yellow.

We like Chicago.

That doesn't mean we have to bet Chicago every day.

We've had success with the Cubs recently, but -145 to score five runs is considerably different from some of the numbers we've previously played.

Likewise, Seth Lugo Over 2.5 earned runs at -165 is simply too expensive for us tonight.

Good team.

Possible winning handicap.

Bad enough price to pass.

Tonight provides a perfect example of what we're trying to teach.

Texas:

Moneyline: -146
First Five: -160
Team Total O3.5: -145
Bradish O2.5 ER: +115

All four wagers can originate from essentially the same basic opinion:

Texas should hit Bradish.

But they aren't the same bet.

We can lay substantial juice on several versions of the handicap—or isolate Bradish and receive plus money.

That's why we shop markets rather than simply saying:

The handicap tells us where to look.

The price tells us whether to bet it.

We've started tracking college football and NFL numbers weeks before the games are played.

There's a reason.

Suppose you bet a football favorite -6.5 early in the week.

By Friday, the market has moved to -8.

You've already accomplished something valuable: you beat the market by 1.5 points.

But now another possibility exists.

Because 7 is a major football key number, an experienced bettor may decide that taking the opponent +8 is worth considering.

Now a final margin of exactly seven can cash both tickets.

That doesn't mean everybody should play the middle.

It means bettors should understand that the opportunity exists.

Our upcoming College Football Betting Guide will cover key numbers, opening lines, line movement, middles, bankroll discipline and why waiting too long to bet a good number can destroy the value of a winning handicap.

We're 0-1 today.

That changes absolutely nothing about tonight's unit size.

No two-unit Bradish play because Wilson lost.

No doubling up.

No "getting it back."

Bradish is one unit because Bradish is one unit.

Tomorrow's card will be tomorrow's card.

🟢 Kyle Bradish Over 2.5 Earned Runs +115

🟡 Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 Ks +120
🟡 Milwaukee TT Over 4.5 +110

⏳ Arizona F5 — pending from Early Edition

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax.

Don't let it be you.