The Official Play record sits at 2-6 this week.

The most frustrating part has been the lack of offense. Four of the MLB losses have produced two total runs — two one-run performances and two shutouts.

Those tickets still count as losses. There are no excuses in the ledger. But there is a difference between completely misreading a matchup and putting yourself in a competitive position only to receive no offensive support.

The answer is not to chase.

It is to keep handicapping, keep evaluating the process and move forward.

And tonight, football finally moves to the front of the board.

7:00 p.m. ET

Buffalo will sit Josh Allen, although some Bills starters are expected to receive work. Kyle Allen and Shane Buechele will handle the quarterback reps.

Pittsburgh will sit Aaron Rodgers and most of its established offensive stars, leaving Drew Allar and Kyle Howard to handle the quarterback work.

The interesting part is the market.

Buffalo opened around -1.5 and has been pushed as high as -3.5. At the same time, the larger wagers have shown more interest in Pittsburgh than the ticket count would suggest.

That makes the number more attractive than the matchup itself.

Classification: 🟡 STRONG LEAN — Steelers +3.5

At +2.5, this drops significantly. The 3 matters.

8:00 p.m. ET

Neither team is approaching this as a dress rehearsal.

Drake Maye and New England's primary starters are expected to sit. Cleveland has also ruled out its regular starters, including Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders.

Cleveland plans to give Dillon Gabriel an extended look, followed by Taylen Green. New England is expected to counter with Tommy DeVito and Behren Morton.

That creates a true reserve-versus-reserve game with significant uncertainty once the rotations get deep.

New England around -2.5 is not enough to force an opinion.

Classification: 🔴 PASS

8:00 p.m. ET

San Francisco has made its intentions fairly clear.

Kyle Shanahan expects to sit nearly all of his regular starters, partly because the 49ers have a shortened turnaround before beginning the regular season in Australia.

Las Vegas has more meaningful roster competition remaining, particularly at quarterback. Fernando Mendoza and Aidan O'Connell still have something to prove, and O'Connell helped engineer the comeback victory over Houston last week.

The market has responded, moving Las Vegas from roughly -2 toward -3/-3.5.

That is enough to make the Raiders the preferred side.

Classification: 🟡 STRONG LEAN — Raiders -3

Playable at -3.5, but -3 is the number to shop for.

10:00 p.m. ET

This is the strongest NFL position tonight.

The coaching approaches are completely different.

Sean McVay is again resting the Rams' established starters. Rookie Ty Simpson will play, with Stetson Bennett also part of the quarterback picture.

The Chargers are doing the opposite.

Justin Herbert and the first-team offense are expected to play approximately six to nine snaps, giving Los Angeles an immediate talent advantage against Rams reserves. Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei then provide the Chargers with experienced and mobile quarterback depth behind him.

There is also meaningful market movement.

The Chargers moved from approximately -2.5 to -3.5 despite most public tickets showing on the Rams.

Starter intent, quarterback depth and market movement all point in the same direction.

Classification: 🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY — Chargers -3.5

Play to -4. Do not chase beyond that.

7:10 p.m. ET — approximately -185 to -195

This is exactly the kind of pitcher-first baseball position that deserves attention regardless of an uncomfortable-looking moneyline.

Jacob Misiorowski.

The Milwaukee ace enters 13-5 with a 1.68 ERA and has delivered four consecutive quality starts. His most recent outing was six scoreless innings against Atlanta.

The Mets counter with Sean Manaea, who carries a 4.31 ERA and has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts. Milwaukee is also 82-51, while New York enters 60-73.

Misiorowski is precisely the type of dominant starter where the handicap starts with finding a way to support him rather than looking for a reason to stay away.

At roughly -190, the moneyline is still the preferred route. We do not need to manufacture a run-line wager simply because the favorite is expensive.

Classification: 🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY — Brewers ML

7:05 p.m. ET — approximately -145 to -155

The Yankees have won seven of their last nine and send Gerrit Cole to the mound with a 3.11 ERA.

Houston counters with Hayden Wesneski at 4.23.

There is another concern for Houston: its bullpen workload has been building because the rotation has struggled to work deep into games. The Astros also managed only four hits in Wednesday's 9-3 loss.

Cole plus stronger current form plus Houston's pitching workload makes New York worth backing.

Classification: 🟡 STRONG LEAN — Yankees ML

7:07 p.m. ET

Kansas City's nine-game winning streak ended Wednesday when the Royals were shut out.

That does not automatically make Kansas City a fade tonight.

Noah Cameron holds the better ERA at 4.02 compared with Spencer Arrighetti's 4.73, and the market has this game close to a pick'em.

But after the streak ended and with no major pricing advantage, there is no reason to load up another baseball position on a football-heavy night.

Classification: 🔴 PASS

7:15 p.m. ET

This is an elite pitching matchup.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 2.61 ERA.
Chris Sale: 2.20 ERA.

Yamamoto has surrendered only nine runs over his last six starts. Sale has also allowed only nine over his last six while striking out 49 and walking just three.

The problem is obvious: 6.5 is already an extremely low total.

Both pitchers deserve respect, but there is almost no margin for bullpen trouble or one crooked inning.

Classification: 🟡 LEAN — Under 6.5

9:45 p.m. ET

Arizona has won eight of nine meetings against San Francisco this season and five of its last seven overall.

The pitching matchup, however, features José Cabrera at 5.60 against Landen Roupp at 4.34. Roupp has struggled badly recently, but Cabrera offers little reason to trust Arizona enough to turn the matchup into a wager.

Classification: 🔴 PASS

8:00 p.m. ET

Golden State has been one of the league's biggest stories at 27-11 and has already beaten New York twice this season.

The problem tonight is the scheduling spot.

New York has been off since Saturday and has won six straight at home. Golden State is playing its third game of the week during an extended road trip.

The Valkyries are good enough that taking New York -2.5 is uncomfortable. The Liberty's rest advantage is large enough that taking Golden State is equally uncomfortable.

Classification: 🔴 PASS

10:00 p.m. ET

Washington just beat Phoenix on this same floor Tuesday and enters tonight with a clean injury report.

Phoenix is dealing with considerably more uncertainty. Kelsey Plum is questionable with a lower-leg injury, while Marta Suárez is out.

Washington has also covered three consecutive meetings against Phoenix, while the Mercury have struggled badly against the spread at home.

At -4.5, Washington remains playable.

Classification: 🟡 STRONG LEAN — Mystics -4.5

Los Angeles Chargers -3.5
Milwaukee Brewers ML

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
Las Vegas Raiders -3
New York Yankees ML
Washington Mystics -4.5

Dodgers/Braves Under 6.5

Week 0 is almost here, and the market is already demonstrating why getting the right number matters.

Numbers that looked attractive early in the week are disappearing.

That is going to become an increasingly important part of The Square Tax during football season: identifying numbers early, tracking where the market is going and knowing when the value has already been taken away.

College football is back Saturday.

If you're going to bet it, there is a major difference between knowing football and knowing how to bet football.

Stop Betting the Logo: The Square Tax Guide to Betting College Football With Discipline, Value and a Repeatable Process covers line movement, key numbers, bankroll discipline, matchup analysis, closing-line value, quarterback evaluation, travel, injuries, situational handicapping and the weekly process from opening lines through Saturday kickoff.

That lesson is already showing up before Week 0 has even kicked off.

A number that looks good Sunday may be gone by Thursday.

Knowing when to bet can matter almost as much as knowing what to bet.

Stop Betting the Logo is $19.99 standalone and included with Tax Code membership.

Football is here.

Be ready before the market moves without you.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don't let it be you.