THE SQUARE TAX — DAILY TAX REPORT

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

🏈 FOOTBALL

There are no NFL or college football games on tonight’s board. Football returns later this week, so Tuesday’s card stays focused on MLB and the WNBA.

⚾ MLB

🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY — TAMPA BAY RAYS ML

Target: -125 or better

Detroit enters tonight having lost six straight and nine of its last 10, while Tampa Bay has taken the first game of the series and remains one of the American League’s strongest clubs. The Rays will use Casey Legumina as an opener before Ian Seymour handles the bulk innings. Seymour has worked effectively in that role, while Jackson Jobe is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery.

The biggest factor is simple: Detroit is ice cold, Tampa Bay is the better team, and the market is still only asking roughly -125.

Classification: 🟢 Official Play — Rays ML

🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY — WASHINGTON NATIONALS ML

Target: -150 or better

Colorado’s slide reached seven straight losses after Washington hammered the Rockies 13-3 Monday. The Nationals send Mason Adams against Andrew Alvarez, and numberFire gives Washington nearly a 70% win probability despite a market price around the mid--140s.

Colorado is 50-81 and has done nothing recently to justify stepping in front of the losing streak.

Classification: 🟢 Official Play — Nationals ML

🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY — KANSAS CITY ROYALS ML

Best available: approximately +115 to +125

Kansas City brings an eight-game winning streak into Toronto, and this is the kind of underdog price that deserves attention rather than fear.

Seth Lugo faces Max Scherzer. Lugo has struggled this season with a 4.71 ERA, but Scherzer enters with an even uglier 7.40 ERA. SportsGrid makes Kansas City its preferred side, and numberFire also gives the Royals the slight win-probability edge despite Toronto being favored.

A team that has won eight straight is getting plus money against a starter carrying a 7-plus ERA.

Classification: 🟢 Official Play — Royals ML

🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY — CLEVELAND GUARDIANS ML

Target: -145 or better

Cleveland has won five straight and six of seven, allowing only about 1.7 runs per game over that seven-game stretch. The Guardians have also beaten the Angels six consecutive times. Gavin Williams gets the ball against a Los Angeles club sitting at 52-80.

This is another spot where current form deserves meaningful weight. Cleveland’s pitching has been carrying the club, and the opponent has not shown enough to justify getting off the streak.

Classification: 🟢 Official Play — Guardians ML

🟡 STRONG LEAN — LOS ANGELES DODGERS ML

Los Angeles enters on a six-game winning streak, and Tyler Glasnow returns to face Bryce Elder. Glasnow has a 2.72 ERA; Elder is at 3.92. The Dodgers are roughly -150, and both numberFire and SportsGrid project Los Angeles as the more likely winner.

The one reason this stays below Official status is Glasnow’s return from the 60-day injured list. Starter length and bullpen exposure are legitimate uncertainties in his first game back.

Classification: 🟡 Strong Lean — Dodgers ML

🟡 STRONG LEAN — TEXAS RANGERS ML

Jacob deGrom gets Texas at essentially a pick’em price. His overall 3.77 ERA is not vintage deGrom, but his last start was six scoreless innings with one hit allowed, and he has struck out more than 15 batters per nine innings across his last three starts. Texas also crushed Chicago 11-2 Monday and has won four of five.

This is a pitcher-driven position at a very reasonable number.

Classification: 🟡 Strong Lean — Rangers ML

🟡 STRONG LEAN — MILWAUKEE BREWERS ML

Milwaukee owns the best record on tonight’s board at 81-50 and comes in off series wins over the Dodgers, Mariners and Braves. Kyle Harrison has been outstanding, carrying an ERA around 3.00 with excellent strikeout numbers, while the Mets enter 59-72.

The only hesitation is price and a capable opposing starter in Zac Thornton.

Classification: 🟡 Strong Lean — Brewers ML

🟡 LEAN — PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ML

Philadelphia’s nine-game streak ended Monday, but one loss does not erase the baseball they played during that run. The Phillies are essentially a pick’em against Seattle tonight.

The concern is Aaron Nola. He carries a 5.12 ERA, while George Kirby sits at 4.18. SportsGrid nevertheless projects Philadelphia at a 55% win probability and prefers the Phillies at the current price.

The Phillies remain worth consideration, but the starting-pitching matchup keeps them below the stronger positions.

Classification: 🟡 Lean — Phillies ML

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres

Paul Skenes normally demands immediate attention, but his current form is a legitimate red flag. His season ERA has risen to 3.95, his fastball velocity has declined noticeably, and recent starts have included shortened workloads and diminished command.

This is not the version of Skenes worth blindly backing, especially against San Diego.

Classification: 🔴 Pass

Remaining MLB Board

Boston @ Miami: Boston is the better club, but -140-plus with Tyler Phillips against Payton Tolle is not compelling enough. Pass.

Houston @ Yankees: Yankees deserve the favoritism, but nothing separates this enough from the stronger spots. Pass.

Baltimore @ St. Louis: Near-.500 clubs with no major form advantage. Pass.

Cubs @ Arizona: Market is essentially a coin flip. Pass.

Minnesota @ Athletics: Minnesota is favored, but projections make the matchup much tighter than the price suggests. Pass.

Cincinnati @ San Francisco: Another near-pick’em game without enough separation. Pass.

🏀 WNBA

🟡 STRONG LEAN — DALLAS WINGS -8 / -8.5

Dallas has won two of three and can lock up a playoff berth. The Wings are also playing better recently after adjusting to the loss of Azzi Fudd. FanDuel Research makes Dallas -8.5 one of its preferred sides tonight.

VSiN’s model is more cautious on the spread and prefers the Under, which keeps Dallas below Official status.

Classification: 🟡 Strong Lean — Wings -8 / -8.5

Chicago Sky @ Connecticut Sun

The market has moved Chicago from roughly -5.5 this morning to -6.5 this afternoon. FanDuel likes Chicago, but VSiN’s model actually makes Connecticut the better side at home. That is too much disagreement for an Official position.

Classification: 🔴 Pass

Washington Mystics @ Phoenix Mercury

Washington is laying roughly two points. Phoenix has significant roster uncertainty, while Washington has been much worse on the road than at home. VSiN specifically recommends staying away from the side.

Classification: 🔴 Pass

TONIGHT’S TAX CARD

🟢 Official Plays
Tampa Bay Rays ML
Washington Nationals ML
Kansas City Royals ML
Cleveland Guardians ML

🟡 Strong Leans
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Texas Rangers ML
Milwaukee Brewers ML
Dallas Wings -8 / -8.5

🟡 Lean
Philadelphia Phillies ML

The MLB card is built around current team form and starting-pitcher strength. Tampa Bay and Washington get the cold-team fades, Kansas City and Cleveland remain teams worth riding, and the Dodgers stay firmly on the radar while Glasnow works his way back into the rotation.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don’t let it be you.