The Square Tax — Daily Tax Report
Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Three targeted positions at plus money or manageable juice
Preview: Today’s card attacks three specific matchups instead of laying expensive full-game favorites. We’re targeting two offenses through their team totals and one pitcher strikeout prop that cleared our final review.
Official Plays
Odds as of 5:24 PM ET. Lines can move. Always shop for the best available number.
🟢 Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total Over 5.5 — +105
Why we like it:
Rather than laying an expensive Dodgers moneyline, we’re isolating the offensive matchup against Javier Assad. Los Angeles needs six runs, and we’re getting plus money instead of paying a premium on the full-game side. Assad is confirmed opposite Tarik Skubal tonight at Wrigley Field.
Official Play: 1 unit
🟢 Houston Astros Team Total Over 4.5 — +110
Why we like it:
Houston only needs five runs, and the team total gives us a better price than Astros -123 while removing the need to trust the bullpen or final result. Trey Yesavage is confirmed against Hayden Wesneski, and Houston recently added another left-handed bat in Daulton Varsho.
Official Play: 1 unit
🟢 Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts — -115
Why we like it:
Five strikeouts is a reasonable target if Singer works into the sixth inning. He has reached at least five strikeouts in 12 of 21 starts this season and in nine of his last 10 outings since June 5. The matchup remains Singer against J.T. Ginn.
Official Play: 1 unit
Leans
🟡 Seattle Mariners Moneyline — -118
Seattle’s price improved considerably from the morning, but Detroit confirmed Troy Melton, who enters with strong numbers. We prefer Seattle, but not strongly enough to place it on the official ledger.
🟡 Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts — -105
The price is reasonable and the ceiling is obvious, but eight strikeouts is still a demanding number against a capable Cubs lineup. We like the over more than the under, but not enough to make it official.
🔴 Passes
Dodgers moneyline at -185
Astros moneyline at -123
Mariners pitcher props
Wesneski Over 3.5 strikeouts at -165
WNBA
The alternatives above either carry too much juice or offer less value than the markets we selected.
Bankroll Reminder
Every official play is 1 unit.
No increasing stakes because yesterday went 1-2.
No chasing losses.
No adding late plays simply because games are available.
Price is paramount.
The Ledger
Yesterday: 1-2
This Week: 1-2
Last Week: 4-7
Overall Official Record: 12-13
Transparency means showing every result—good, bad or ugly.
Odds timestamp: 5:24 PM ET
Odds and totals are subject to change before game time.