THE SQUARE TAX — DAILY TAX REPORT

Wednesday Evening Edition — August 26, 2026

Hot streaks, selective action, and football on deck

Early Edition Recap

Detroit was the early Official Play and lost 3-0.

The pitching side of the handicap held up reasonably well. The problem was simple: Detroit produced no offense.

That drops the weekly Official Play record to 2-5.

There is no point dressing it up. If a team scores zero runs, it is almost impossible to cash a moneyline ticket. Grade the loss and move forward.

Now we turn to the evening board.

⚾ MLB

🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY — KANSAS CITY ROYALS ML

Best available: approximately +135 to +145

Kansas City has won nine consecutive games, and there is no reason to jump off the streak now.

The Royals have been producing offense throughout this run and are getting plus money again tonight. They also send Randy Dobnak to the mound with a 1.58 ERA. He has not allowed a run over his last two starts. Toronto is expected to use Spencer Miles as an opener rather than a traditional full-length starter.

That combination matters.

A team riding a nine-game winning streak, getting plus money, with the stronger traditional starting-pitching setup is exactly the type of baseball spot worth riding until the team proves otherwise.

Classification: 🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY — Kansas City Royals ML

🟡 STRONG LEAN — BOSTON RED SOX ML

Approximately -125 to -140

Boston enters tonight on a five-game winning streak and has won eight of its last 10.

The Red Sox also send Sonny Gray against Ryan Gusto.

Boston has been finding ways to win even when games get uncomfortable, including Tuesday’s extra-inning victory in Miami.

The current streak automatically puts Boston on the radar, and the pitching matchup does nothing to scare us away.

Classification: 🟡 STRONG LEAN — Boston Red Sox ML

🟡 STRONG LEAN — LOS ANGELES DODGERS ML

Approximately -115 to -125

Los Angeles had its six-game winning streak snapped Tuesday in a 4-3 loss to Atlanta. That does not erase the larger run of strong baseball.

Tonight’s pitching matchup is Roki Sasaki against AJ Smith-Shawver. Sasaki enters with a 4.42 ERA, while Smith-Shawver carries a 6.23 ERA.

Atlanta is dangerous at home, so this is not an automatic Official Play.

But the Dodgers remain the stronger overall club, and one loss after six straight wins is not a reason to suddenly abandon them.

Classification: 🟡 STRONG LEAN — Dodgers ML

🟡 LEAN — MILWAUKEE BREWERS ML

Milwaukee has dropped two straight, but the Brewers are still 81-51 with a +160 run differential and remain one of baseball’s best teams.

The Mets have won the first two games of this series, so this becomes a test of whether Milwaukee responds or continues sliding.

There is enough overall team-quality advantage to keep the Brewers on the board, but not enough tonight to elevate them above a Lean.

Classification: 🟡 LEAN — Brewers ML

Houston Astros @ New York Yankees

Both teams are capable of creating offense quickly, and the board does not present enough separation on either side.

Classification: 🔴 PASS

Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox

Chicago won Tuesday’s matchup 11-7, while Texas remains inconsistent offensively.

No meaningful edge tonight.

Classification: 🔴 PASS

Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals

The market is close to a pick’em, and neither team presents a streak or pitching edge strong enough to force action.

Classification: 🔴 PASS

Minnesota Twins @ Athletics

The total is sitting around 11, which tells you plenty about the expected pitching environment.

No reason to manufacture a side.

Classification: 🔴 PASS

🏀 WNBA

🟡 STRONG LEAN — GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES -13.5

Golden State is coming off an impressive 80-66 road win over Minnesota, holding one of the league’s strongest offenses to a season-low 66 points. Golden State also owns the league’s top defensive rating.

Connecticut is dealing with injuries and played Tuesday night, creating a difficult back-to-back situation.

The concern is obvious: 13.5 points is a huge number, especially with Golden State beginning a road back-to-back of its own.

The matchup favors Golden State strongly. The spread keeps it below Official status.

Classification: 🟡 STRONG LEAN — Valkyries -13.5

🟡 STRONG LEAN — SEATTLE STORM -6.5

Toronto has been crushed by injuries.

Brittney Sykes and Aneesah Morrow are out for the remainder of the season, and the Tempo have been forced to operate with a severely reduced rotation.

Seattle has plenty of flaws of its own, but this is largely a fade of a Toronto roster running out of healthy bodies.

Classification: 🟡 STRONG LEAN — Seattle -6.5

TONIGHT’S TAX CARD

🟢 OFFICIAL PLAY

Kansas City Royals ML — approximately +135 to +145

🟡 STRONG LEANS

Boston Red Sox ML
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Golden State Valkyries -13.5
Seattle Storm -6.5

🟡 LEAN

Milwaukee Brewers ML

🏈 FOOTBALL IS HERE

The baseball board will remain part of The Square Tax, but the calendar is changing.

Football begins taking center stage tomorrow, and the Daily Tax Report will become increasingly football-first as college football and the NFL take over the schedule.

That means more emphasis on line movement, key numbers, matchup breakdowns, market timing and identifying the best numbers before they disappear.

College football is back, and this is exactly why Stop Betting the Logo: The Square Tax Guide to Betting College Football With Discipline, Value and a Repeatable Process was built.

The guide covers everything from bankroll discipline and line shopping to market movement, key numbers, situational handicapping, quarterback evaluation, injuries, weather, travel, matchup building and final Saturday preparation.

From the Guide

“The goal is not to bet more college football. The goal is to bet college football better.”

That is the entire philosophy.

Anybody can wake up Saturday, scroll through 60 games and fire away.

The goal is to know which games deserve your money, which numbers are worth betting and which games should be left alone.

Stop Betting the Logo is $19.99 standalone and included with a Tax Code membership.

Football season is here.

Get prepared before the board starts moving.

Every day somebody pays the Square Tax. Don’t let it be you.