FREE EDITION — MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2026

A new week brings a smaller sports schedule, but that doesn't mean there isn't plenty to analyze.

We've got Monday Night Football featuring two dangerous offenses, Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, and a pair of NHL matchups.

Before we get started, here's where The Square Tax stands after Sunday's NFL action.

Overall Official Plays: 31–23 (57.4%)

NFL Official Plays: 15–9 (62.5%)

Sunday's published card finished 3–4. We started 3–1 in the early window before dropping the three afternoon selections.

We report every result, good or bad. Transparency isn't optional.

Kickoff: 8:15 PM ET

Market: Los Angeles -3.5 | Total 54.5

Tonight's matchup features Josh Allen against Matthew Stafford in a game with significant offensive potential.

Buffalo's greatest weapon remains Allen's ability to create plays when protection breaks down. His combination of arm strength, mobility, and improvisation makes the Bills dangerous regardless of the scoreboard.

James Cook gives Buffalo another offensive dimension with his speed, vision, and ability to create explosive rushing plays.

But the Rams present serious challenges.

Matthew Stafford has the experience and arm talent to attack Buffalo's secondary, while Puka Nacua gives Los Angeles a dangerous receiving target.

The Rams also have defensive personnel capable of pressuring the quarterback, potentially forcing Allen into difficult situations.

What we're watching:

Can Buffalo protect Allen long enough to establish its passing attack?

Will Cook find enough running room to keep Los Angeles from concentrating on Allen?

And can Buffalo's defense limit Stafford's explosive passing opportunities?

With two accomplished quarterbacks and significant offensive talent, this should be one of the more entertaining Monday night matchups of the season.

The key is understanding how the matchups translate into the betting market, rather than simply assuming a high-profile game will produce a particular result.

American League Championship Series — Game 1

First pitch: 8:00 PM ET

Market: Tampa Bay approximately -150 to -160 | Total 6.5

The American League Championship Series begins with an intriguing pitching matchup between Foster Griffin and Drew Rasmussen.

Cleveland arrives after a demanding five-game Division Series, while Tampa Bay advanced following a sweep of the Yankees.

Drew Rasmussen — Tampa Bay

Rasmussen finished the regular season 16–5 with a 2.67 ERA.

His ability to command the strike zone, limit hard contact, and generate swings and misses gives Tampa Bay a formidable presence on the mound.

Foster Griffin — Cleveland

Griffin posted a 15–6 record with a 3.60 ERA during the regular season.

Cleveland will need him to work efficiently and avoid giving Tampa Bay extra opportunities early in the contest.

What we're watching:

The starting pitchers, bullpen availability, defensive execution, and each team's ability to manufacture runs will be crucial.

Postseason baseball is often decided by a single mistake, particularly when both clubs enter with quality pitching.

Ottawa enters with an encouraging early-season record and strong goaltending from Linus Ullmark.

New Jersey counters with Jack Hughes and a talented offensive lineup capable of generating quality scoring opportunities.

The Senators are dealing with injuries along their defensive unit, making puck management and goaltending especially important.

Key matchup: Ottawa's goaltending against New Jersey's offensive skill.

Two competitive Western Conference teams meet in an early-season matchup.

Vegas has the ability to generate offense through multiple lines, while Minnesota brings physical play and a talented roster of its own.

Special teams, defensive discipline, and the goaltending matchup will be particularly important.

Key matchup: Which team controls possession and creates the higher-quality scoring chances?

Our paid Tax Code members receive our Official betting selections, regular Leans, and detailed reasoning behind the numbers.

We don't manufacture selections to fill a newsletter. Some nights present several opportunities. Others require a more selective approach.

Tonight's premium edition includes postseason baseball analysis, a full Monday Night Football handicap, and an additional player-prop discussion.

Tax Code Membership: $9.99/month or $99/year

Members also receive our College Football Betting Guide, normally $19.99 as a standalone purchase.

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