FREE EDITION — SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2026

College Football • WNBA Finals • NHL

It's Saturday. The college football schedule is loaded, the WNBA Finals begin today, and the NHL has a full slate of games.

And if you're still betting based on team names, rankings, or what some guy on social media calls a lock, you're missing the most important part of sports betting.

The number.

At The Square Tax, we're examining the matchups, quarterback play, injuries, defensive personnel, sportsbook lines, and situations that create betting opportunities.

Our Tax Code members have already received today's premium college football report, featuring FOUR OFFICIAL PLAYS, complete with detailed handicaps.

But the games don't stop this afternoon.

We're also evaluating tonight's action for additional opportunities.

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Your membership also includes our College Football Betting Guide, normally $19.99, at no additional charge.

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Overall Official Plays: 31–26 (54.4%)

NFL Official Plays: 15–10 (60.0%)

Our record includes every published Official Play, winning or losing.

We don't count unpublished selections, retroactively upgrade Leans, or hide losing results.

After a difficult stretch, we're staying focused on the same process that brought us here: research, discipline, and finding value at the right price.

Kickoff: Noon ET

One of the biggest games of the entire college football weekend takes place in Bloomington.

Ohio State brings an exceptional collection of offensive talent, led by quarterback Julian Sayin and receiver Jeremiah Smith.

But this isn't simply another game where the Buckeyes can expect to overwhelm an opponent through talent alone.

Indiana has built a formidable defense and enters with plenty of confidence.

Quarterback Josh Hoover has been outstanding protecting the football, and Indiana's defensive front is capable of creating difficult situations for opposing offenses.

Julian Sayin under pressure: Can Ohio State's quarterback deliver against one of the more challenging defenses on its schedule?

Indiana's pass rush: Getting pressure without sacrificing coverage will be critical.

Explosive plays: Ohio State has the athletes to change a game instantly, but Indiana will attempt to limit those opportunities.

Field position: In a competitive matchup, special teams and turnovers could determine the outcome.

This game should tell us plenty about both teams' championship credentials.

Kickoff: Noon ET

This is one of Saturday's more interesting games from a market perspective.

LSU enters as a substantial favorite despite having experienced offensive inconsistency.

Mississippi State is dealing with important personnel concerns, especially on offense.

That creates an interesting question:

How much should injuries influence a betting line?

The answer depends on the importance of the missing players, the quality of their replacements, and how the opposing team can exploit those weaknesses.

LSU has an opportunity to establish control, but the Tigers must execute offensively rather than rely solely on their talent advantage.

We'll be watching LSU's early offensive rhythm and Mississippi State's ability to sustain drives.

A SEC rivalry with plenty of history.

Georgia continues to establish itself as one of the most complete programs in college football.

The Bulldogs have exceptional defensive talent, an effective rushing attack, and one of the sport's premier coaching staffs.

Auburn arrives knowing that simply matching Georgia's physicality will be a challenge.

But rivalry games have a way of introducing additional pressure and unpredictable moments.

1. Georgia's defensive front: Can Auburn establish enough of a running game to prevent obvious passing situations?

2. Turnovers: Auburn cannot afford to give Georgia short fields.

3. Offensive efficiency: The Bulldogs will look to finish drives and establish control early.

Georgia is capable of overwhelming opponents, but understanding the game script matters more than simply looking at the rankings.

Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET

One of the great rivalries in college football returns to Neyland Stadium.

Alabama enters with quarterback Keelon Russell, whose combination of mobility, arm talent, and playmaking ability gives the Crimson Tide a dangerous offensive weapon.

Russell encountered significant challenges against Georgia's defense in his previous game.

Tennessee presents a different matchup, but playing in Knoxville brings its own complications.

Alabama's offensive response: How does Russell respond after a difficult matchup?

Tennessee's offensive efficiency: The Volunteers must sustain drives and capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Crowd influence: Neyland Stadium can create communication problems for visiting offenses.

Red-zone execution: Both teams need touchdowns rather than field goals when opportunities arise.

The result could depend on which offense handles pressure and adversity more effectively.

An important SEC matchup with postseason implications.

Missouri and Ole Miss meet in a game that could significantly affect the conference standings.

Both offenses possess playmakers capable of producing explosive gains.

The biggest questions revolve around protecting the quarterback, avoiding negative plays, and maintaining defensive discipline.

We'll pay particular attention to which team establishes control of the line of scrimmage and whether either defense can force turnovers.

In a matchup featuring talented offenses, a handful of possessions can determine the outcome.

Game 1 | 3:30 PM ET

FREE PLAY: UNDER 154.5 (-110)

The WNBA Finals begin with two teams that have built their success around outstanding defensive basketball.

Atlanta features Defensive Player of the Year Angel Reese, while Golden State counters with Gabby Williams and Kiah Stokes.

Both teams placed three players on the league's All-Defensive teams.

We expect an emphasis on defensive execution, contested possessions, and limiting second-chance scoring opportunities.

Atlanta also enters with uncertainty surrounding leading scorer Allisha Gray, who has been dealing with a hand injury.

The risk is that Golden State's offensive efficiency or a faster-than-expected pace could push scoring higher.

Nevertheless, we believe this opening matchup has the potential to develop into a defensive battle.

THE SQUARE TAX FREE PLAY: UNDER 154.5 (-110)

Tipoff: 3:30 PM ET

The WNBA Finals begin with an outstanding matchup between two teams chasing their first championship.

Golden State has enjoyed a remarkable second season as a franchise, earning home-court advantage in the Finals.

Atlanta has been equally impressive in the postseason, demonstrating defensive intensity and the ability to control critical possessions.

Golden State's home court: Chase Center should provide an outstanding atmosphere.

Atlanta's rebounding: Controlling the glass and limiting second-chance opportunities will be critical.

Defensive execution: Both teams have earned their place in the championship series by consistently getting stops.

Late-game possessions: Expect execution in the final minutes to matter.

The Finals are an excellent reminder that playoff basketball requires a different level of attention to matchups and rotations.

We're watching the series closely as it develops.

Puck Drop: 3:30 PM ET

Carolina has opened the season playing strong hockey, with Sebastian Aho providing offensive production.

Winnipeg counters with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, giving the Jets their own scoring threats.

This matchup will likely come down to defensive structure, goaltending, and which team controls possession.

Carolina's aggressive approach can generate pressure, but Winnipeg's home ice and offensive talent make this an intriguing contest.

Early-season records are worth watching, but they don't replace matchup analysis.

Puck Drop: 7:00 PM ET

Toronto hosts an Islanders team looking to establish consistency early in the season.

The Maple Leafs have offensive talent capable of creating scoring opportunities in bunches.

New York will attempt to slow the pace, limit quality chances, and make Toronto work for every goal.

Goaltending and special teams will be particularly important in this matchup.

We continue to evaluate the NHL carefully rather than forcing selections based on small early-season samples.

One of the biggest night games on the schedule.

Notre Dame travels to Provo for a high-profile matchup with BYU.

Both teams enter with significant postseason aspirations, and LaVell Edwards Stadium should provide a tremendous atmosphere.

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr faces a difficult road environment against a BYU team led by Bear Bachmeier.

Quarterback composure: Both offenses must avoid turnovers and unnecessary negative plays.

The battle up front: Offensive-line protection will determine how aggressively each team can attack downfield.

Home-field advantage: BYU's crowd and the challenges of playing in Provo could influence communication and tempo.

Fourth-quarter execution: This has the potential to be a game decided in the closing possessions.

It's the kind of matchup that makes college football Saturdays special.

Another significant Big 12 matchup under the lights.

Oklahoma State and Houston bring offensive talent into a game with important conference implications.

The ability to produce explosive plays could become a determining factor.

But equally important will be avoiding turnovers, converting third downs, and keeping the opposing offense off the field.

We'll be evaluating whether either team can establish enough defensive consistency to control the matchup.

This is one of the most important lessons any bettor can learn.

A team can be significantly better than its opponent and still fail to cover the spread.

Conversely, a weaker team can offer excellent betting value when the market overestimates the favorite.

That's why we separate two questions:

Who do we think wins?

And:

Is the sportsbook asking us to pay too much for that outcome?

Those questions aren't interchangeable.

Our approach considers the quarterback matchup, offensive and defensive personnel, injuries, coaching, recent performance, scheduling, and the prevailing market number.

We also recognize that passing on a game can be the correct decision.

Betting more games doesn't automatically mean finding more value.

Today's premium members have received:

FOUR OFFICIAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS

Along with:

And Saturday isn't over.

We're continuing to evaluate the later college football schedule for additional opportunities.

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It's a full day of college football, championship basketball, and hockey.

There will be plenty of opportunities to watch games, evaluate matchups, and learn something about the betting market.

But don't confuse having an opinion with having an advantage.

Stop Betting the Logo. Start Betting the Number.

THE SQUARE TAX

Sports betting analysis focused on value, bankroll discipline, line movement, and smarter betting practices.

No locks. No gimmicks.